相关论文: Quantifying Age and Model Uncertainties in Paleocl…
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar…
Fossil-based palaeoclimate reconstruction is an important area of ecological science that has gained momentum in the backdrop of the global climate change debate. The hierarchical Bayesian paradigm provides an interesting platform for…
Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…
Critical decisions frequently rely on high-dimensional output from complex computer simulation models that show intricate cross-variable, spatial and temporal dependence structures, with weather and climate predictions being key examples.…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Long simulation times in climate sciences typically require coarse grids due to computational constraints. Nonetheless, unresolved subscale information significantly influences the prognostic variables and can not be neglected for reliable…
Calculation of phase diagrams is one of the fundamental tools in alloy design---more specifically under the framework of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering. Uncertainty quantification of phase diagrams is the first step required…
This paper introduces a comprehensive model for age estimation, verification, and comparability, offering a comprehensive solution for a wide range of applications. It employs advanced learning techniques to understand age distribution and…
We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…
Human age estimation has attracted increasing researches due to its wide applicability in such as security monitoring and advertisement recommendation. Although a variety of methods have been proposed, most of them focus only on the…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
We develop a methodological framework and mathematical formulation which yields estimates of the uncertainty associated with the amounts of CO2 generated by carbonate-clays reactions (CCR) in large-scale subsurface systems to assist…
Climate exhibits a vast range of dissipative structures. Some have characteristic times of a few days; others evolve on thousands of years. All these structures are interdependent; in other words, they communicate. It is often considered…
We report on an ongoing investigation into a seismic calibration of solar models designed for estimating the main-sequence age and a measure of the chemical abundances of the Sun. Only modes of low degree are employed, so that with…
Geostatistical seismic inversion is commonly used to infer the spatial distribution of the subsurface petro-elastic properties by perturbing the model parameter space through iterative stochastic sequential simulations/co-simulations. The…
Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
We propose a method to merge several paleoclimate time series into one that exhibits a consensus on the features of the individual times series. The paleoclimate time series can be noisy, nonuniformly sampled and the dates at which the…
Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that…
We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimate variables from site-based reconstructions. Using a 3D-Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially…