相关论文: Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for lar…

Floods are the most common form of natural disaster and accurate flood forecasting is essential for early warning systems. Previous work has shown that machine learning (ML) models are a promising way to improve flood predictions when…

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, the recorded discharge measurements of a group of similar, gauged, stations is used…

In this study, annual runoff is estimated by using a Bayesian geostatistical model for interpolation of hydrological data of different spatial support. That is, streamflow observations from catchments (areal data), and precipitation and…

Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of…

The increasing impact of human-induced climate change and unplanned urban constructions has increased flooding incidents in recent years. Accurate identification of flooded areas is crucial for effective disaster management and urban…

In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

We introduce Bayesian hierarchical models for predicting high-dimensional tabular survey data which can be distributed from one or multiple classes of distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Poisson, Binomial, etc.). We adopt a Bayesian…

Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

This work is motivated by constructing a weather simulator for precipitation. Temperature and humidity are two of the most important driving forces of precipitation, and the strategy is to have a stochastic model for temperature and…

Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral…

Multivariate extreme value analysis quantifies the probability and magnitude of joint extreme events. River discharges from the upper Danube River basin provide a challenging dataset for such analysis because the data, which is measured on…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a commonly used, flexible framework applied to many problems in statistical ecology. GAMs are often considered to be a purely frequentist framework (`generalized linear models with wiggly bits'),…

Regression-based frameworks for streamflow regionalization are built around catchment attributes that traditionally originate from catchment hydrology, flood frequency analysis and their interplay. In this work, we deviated from this…

Power law scaling models have been used to understand the complexity of systems as diverse as cities, neurological activity, and rainfall and lightning. In the scaling framework, power laws and standard linear regression methods are widely…

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards worldwide, posing serious risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human livelihoods. This study combines Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery with environmental and hydrological…

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…

Normalizing flows provide an elegant approach to generative modeling that allows for efficient sampling and exact density evaluation of unknown data distributions. However, current techniques have significant limitations in their…

Motivated by the Extreme Value Analysis 2021 (EVA 2021) data challenge we propose a method based on statistics and machine learning for the spatial prediction of extreme wildfire frequencies and sizes. This method is tailored to handle…

This paper proposes a new model-based approach to small area estimation of general finite-population parameters based on grouped data or frequency data, which is often available from sample surveys. Grouped data contains information on…