相关论文: Estimating Under Five Mortality in Space and Time …

Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because…

Childhood anemia remains a major public health challenge in Nepal and is associated with impaired growth, cognition, and increased morbidity. Using World Health Organization hemoglobin thresholds, we defined anemia status for children aged…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…

Illness-death models are a class of stochastic models inside the multi-state framework. In those models, individuals are allowed to move over time between different states related to illness and death. They are of special interest when…

COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the…

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards worldwide, posing serious risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human livelihoods. This study combines Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery with environmental and hydrological…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

Improvements to Zambia's malaria surveillance system allow better monitoring of incidence and targetting of responses at refined spatial scales. As transmission decreases, understanding heterogeneity in risk at fine spatial scales becomes…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…

Urbanization is a common phenomenon in developing countries and it poses serious challenges when not managed effectively. Lack of proper planning and management may cause the encroachment of urban fabrics into reserved or special regions…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Survival regression is widely used to model time-to-events data, to explore how covariates may influence the occurrence of events. Modern datasets often encompass a vast number of covariates across many subjects, with only a subset of the…

This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical model to characterize the relationship between birth weight and maternal pre-eclampsia across gestation at a large maternity hospital in urban Uganda. Key scientific questions we investigate…

In countries where population census data are limited, generating accurate subnational estimates of health and demographic indicators is challenging. Existing model-based geostatistical methods leverage covariate information and spatial…

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various studies have focused on predicting the trajectory and risk factors of the virus and its variants. Building on previous work that addressed this problem using genetic and epidemiological…

Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…