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Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…

Background: Following the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in early 2020, municipalities, regional governments and policymakers worldwide had to plan their Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) amidst a scenario of great uncertainty.…

Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently…

The new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. One of the questions many policy makers, and governments are asking themselves is how the spread is…

Reconstructing pathogen dynamics from genetic data as they become available during an outbreak or epidemic represents an important statistical scenario in which observations arrive sequentially in time and one is interested in performing…

Smoking of tobacco is predicted to cause approximately six million deaths worldwide in 2014. Responding effectively to this epidemic requires a thorough understanding of how smoking behaviour is transmitted and modified. Here, we present a…

To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows…

We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…

A central feature of an emerging infectious disease in a pandemic scenario is the spread through geographical scales and the impacts on different locations according to the adopted mitigation protocols. We investigated a stochastic epidemic…

Few African countries have reported COVID-19 case numbers above $1\,000$ as of April 18, 2020, with South Africa reporting $3\,034$ cases being hit hardest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Several African countries, especially South Africa, have…

In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…

Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of…

Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

In this paper, we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in temporal and adaptive networks. Building on the activity-driven network model, we propose an adaptive model of epidemic processes, where the network topology…

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…

With the global refugee crisis at a historic high, there is a growing need to assess the impact of refugee settlements on their hosting countries and surrounding environments. Because fires are an important land management practice in…

The World Health Organization describes zoonotic diseases as a major pandemic threat, and modeling the behavior of such diseases is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from…

We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…

The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…