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Human behavior is a dynamic process that evolves with experience. Understanding the evolution of individual's risk propensity is critical to design public health interventions to propitiate the adoption of better biosecurity protocols and…
Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…
We study the problem of identifying the source of emerging large-scale outbreaks of foodborne disease. To solve the source identification problem we formulate a probabilistic model of the contamination diffusion process as a random walk on…
Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and other features. These differences may yield different predictions and parameter estimates from…
We adapt the social force model of crowd dynamics to capture the evacuation during a zombie outbreak from an academic building. Individuals navigate the building, opening doors, and evacuate to the nearest exit. Zombies chase the uninfected…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
Studies in malaria control cover many areas such as medicine, sociology, biology, mathematic, physic, computer science and so forth. Researches in the realm of mathematic are conducted to predict the occurrence of the disease and to support…
Infectious diseases usually originate from a specific location within a city. Due to the heterogenous distribution of population and public facilities, and the structural heterogeneity of human mobility network embedded in space, infectious…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
We propose a multi-patch model of cholera transmission integrating environmental contamination, human mobility, and nutritional vulnerability. The population is stratified by food security status, and transmission occurs via human contact,…
Phylodynamics is a set of population genetics tools that aim at reconstructing demographic history of a population based on molecular sequences of individuals sampled from the population of interest. One important task in phylodynamics is…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a major public health challenge, particularly in high-burden regions such as Ethiopia, necessitating a more profound understanding of its transmission dynamics. In this study, we developed an SVEITRS…
We propose to utilize mobile phone technology as a vehicle for people to report their symptoms and to receive immediate feedback about the health services readily available, and for predicting spatial disease outbreak risk. Once symptoms…
We introduce a new tuberculosis (TB) mathematical model, with $25$ state-space variables where $15$ are evolution disease states (EDSs), which generalises previous models and takes into account the (seasonal) flux of populations between a…