相关论文: Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribu…

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance…

A central question in risk analysis is to identify the factors that drive the system toward a specific hazardous outcome, such as the exceedance of a given threshold. When relying on numerical simulators, we propose to study the…

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

We consider the challenges that arise when fitting complex ecological models to 'large' data sets. In particular, we focus on random effect models which are commonly used to describe individual heterogeneity, often present in ecological…

We characterize the statistical bootstrap for the estimation of information-theoretic quantities from data, with particular reference to its use in the study of large-scale social phenomena. Our methods allow one to preserve, approximately,…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…

Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…

Predictions of the uncertainty associated with extreme events are a vital component of any prediction system for such events. Consequently, the prediction system ought to be probabilistic in nature, with the predictions taking the form of…

This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…

Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

The wild bootstrap is a popular resampling method in the context of time-to-event data analyses. Previous works established the large sample properties of it for applications to different estimators and test statistics. It can be used to…

The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging as one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo simulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends (i.e.,…

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…

Financial event studies, ubiquitous in finance research, typically use linear factor models with known factors to estimate abnormal returns and identify causal effects of information events. This paper demonstrates that when factor models…

Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully-resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on…

In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data…