相关论文: Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribu…

Random matrix theory is a useful tool in the study of the physics of multiple scattering systems, often striking a balance between computation speed and physical rigour. Propagation of waves through thick disordered media, as arises in for…

In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…

Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

Causal and attribution studies are essential for earth scientific discoveries and critical for informing climate, ecology, and water policies. However, the current generation of methods needs to keep pace with the complexity of scientific…

In hydrology, modeling streamflow remains a challenging task due to the limited availability of basin characteristics information such as soil geology and geomorphology. These characteristics may be noisy due to measurement errors or may be…

Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…

Spectral analysis plays a crucial role in high-dimensional statistics, where determining the asymptotic distribution of various spectral statistics remains a challenging task. Due to the difficulties of deriving the analytic form, recent…

We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…

The so-called 'energy test' is a frequentist technique used in experimental particle physics to decide whether two samples are drawn from the same distribution. Its usage requires a good understanding of the distribution of the test…

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent…

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

The Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF) is a forecasting tool that uses output from global climate models to make simultaneous attribution statements about whether and how greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to extreme weather…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

In reinforcement learning, it is typical to use the empirically observed transitions and rewards to estimate the value of a policy via either model-based or Q-fitting approaches. Although straightforward, these techniques in general yield…

The manuscript discusses how to incorporate random effects for quantile regression models for clustered data with focus on settings with many but small clusters. The paper has three contributions: (i) documenting that existing methods may…

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states…