相关论文: Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribu…

Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is naturally modeled as continuous random…

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…

Meta-analysis is a statistical method used in evidence synthesis for combining, analyzing and summarizing studies that have the same target endpoint and aims to derive a pooled quantitative estimate using fixed and random effects models or…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data, achieve impressive results and demonstrate substantial…

Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that…

Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…

In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…

Many real-world situations of ethical and economic relevance, such as collective (in)action with respect to the climate crisis, involve not only diverse agents whose decisions interact in complicated ways, but also various forms of…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it is closest to in distance. However, this may not always be…

Images from outdoor scenes may be taken under various weather conditions. It is well studied that weather impacts the performance of computer vision algorithms and needs to be handled properly. However, existing algorithms model weather…

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…