相关论文: Exploiting routinely collected severe case data to…

Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…

Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…

Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza, however quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of…

The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…

Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…

We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden around the globe. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1-2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and…

Evidence-based knowledge of infectious disease burden, including prevalence, incidence, severity and transmission, in different population strata and locations, and possibly in real time, is crucial to the planning and evaluation of public…

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…

Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by…

Epidemics of infectious diseases are an important threat to public health and global economies. Yet, the development of prevention strategies remains a challenging process, as epidemics are non-linear and complex processes. For this reason,…

Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…

Background: Seasonal influenza causes a substantial burden on healthcare services over the winter period when these systems are already under pressure. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic supressed the transmission of season influenza,…