相关论文: Modeling influenza-like illnesses through composit…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
Pathogen genome data offers valuable structure for spatial models, but its utility is limited by incomplete sequencing coverage. We propose a probabilistic framework for inferring genetic distances between unsequenced cases and known…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
Population heterogeneity is a key factor in epidemic dynamics, influencing both transmission and final epidemic size. While heterogeneity is often modelled through age structure, spatial location, or contact patterns, differences in host…
Evidence-based knowledge of infectious disease burden, including prevalence, incidence, severity and transmission, in different population strata and locations, and possibly in real time, is crucial to the planning and evaluation of public…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
The study of infectious disease epidemiology for multi-type disease pathogens requires modelling techniques that account for the complex interactions existing between strains across geography and time. In this paper, we propose a novel…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…