相关论文: Forecasting in the light of Big Data

We review the most important statistical ideas of the past half century, which we categorize as: counterfactual causal inference, bootstrapping and simulation-based inference, overparameterized models and regularization, Bayesian multilevel…

Data science has the potential to improve business in a variety of verticals. While the lion's share of data science projects uses a predictive approach, to drive improvements these predictions should become decisions. However, such a…

The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fundamental drivers of forecast accuracy. Here, we demonstrate…

There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides many opportunities to improve private and public life. Discovering patterns and structures in large troves of data in an automated manner is a core component of data science, and currently drives…

With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…

Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they…

To many statisticians and citizens, the outcome of the most recent U.S. presidential election represents a failure of data-driven methods on the grandest scale. This impression has led to much debate and discussion about how the election…

Data-based decisionmaking must account for the manipulation of data by agents who are aware of how decisions are being made and want to affect their allocations. We study a framework in which, due to such manipulation, data becomes less…

A confluence of advances in the computer and mathematical sciences has unleashed unprecedented capabilities for enabling true evidence-based decision making. These capabilities are making possible the large-scale capture of data and the…

Big Data involves both a large number of events but also many variables. This paper will concentrate on the challenge presented by the large number of variables in a Big Dataset. It will start with a brief review of exploratory data…

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Despite being popularly referred to as the ultimate solution for all problems of our current electric power system, smart grid is still a growing and unstable concept. It is usually considered as a set of advanced features powered by…

Big Data concern large-volume, growing data sets that are complex and have multiple autonomous sources. Earlier technologies were not able to handle storage and processing of huge data thus Big Data concept comes into existence. This is a…

A common approach in forecasting problems is to estimate a least-squares regression (or other statistical learning models) from past data, which is then applied to predict future outcomes. An underlying assumption is that the same…

The recent trend for acquiring big data assumes that possessing quantitatively more and qualitatively finer data necessarily provides an advantage that may be critical in competitive situations. Using a model complex adaptive system where…

We introduce an ambidextrous view of stochastic dynamical systems, comparing their forward-time and reverse-time representations and then integrating them into a single time-symmetric representation. The perspective is useful theoretically,…

Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…

The article deals with the problem which led to Big Data. Big Data information technology is the set of methods and means of processing different types of structured and unstructured dynamic large amounts of data for their analysis and use…