相关论文: Forecasting in the light of Big Data

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

This is a review of aspects of the theory of algorithmic information that may contribute to a framework for formulating questions related to complex highly unpredictable systems. We start by contrasting Shannon Entropy and…

Very large datasets are often encountered in climatology, either from a multiplicity of observations over time and space or outputs from deterministic models (sometimes in petabytes= 1 million gigabytes). Loading a large data vector and…

Filtering has had a profound impact as a device of perceiving information and deriving agent expectations in dynamic economic models. For an abstract economic system, this paper shows that the foundation of applying the filtering method…

Real-time forecasting is important to the society. It uses continuous data streams to update forecasts for sustained accuracy. But the data source is vulnerable to attacks or accidents and the dynamics of forecasting failure and recovery…

Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…

Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles in order to plan safe and feasible trajectories. The behaviors of others, however, are full of uncertainties. Both rational…

Data-driven approaches, when tasked with situation awareness, are suitable for complex grids with massive datasets. It is a challenge, however, to efficiently turn these massive datasets into useful big data analytics. To address such a…

Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is…

The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Breiman's classic paper casts data analysis as a choice between two cultures: data modelers and algorithmic modelers. Stated broadly, data modelers use simple, interpretable models with well-understood theoretical properties to analyze…

Turing's (1936) paper on computable numbers has played its role in underpinning different perspectives on the world of information. On the one hand, it encourages a digital ontology, with a perceived flatness of computational structure…

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Citations are the cornerstone of knowledge propagation and the primary means of assessing the quality of research, as well as directing investments in science. Science is increasingly becoming "data-intensive", where large volumes of data…

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

At its core, the physics paradigm adopts a reductionist approach, aiming to understand fundamental phenomena by decomposing them into simpler, elementary processes. While this strategy has been tremendously successful in physics, it has…