相关论文: Bayesian radiocarbon modelling for beginners

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

Modern deep learning methods constitute incredibly powerful tools to tackle a myriad of challenging problems. However, since deep learning methods operate as black boxes, the uncertainty associated with their predictions is often…

The paper presents a critical introduction to the complex statistical models used in ${}^{14}$C dating. The emphasis is on the estimation of the transit time between a sequence of archeological layers. Although a frequentist estimation of…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Growing anthropogenic pressures have increased the need for robust predictive models. Meeting this demand requires approaches that can handle bigger data to yield forecasts that capture the variability and underlying uncertainty of…

The past decades have seen enormous improvements in computational inference based on statistical models, with continual enhancement in a wide range of computational tools, in competition. In Bayesian inference, first and foremost, MCMC…

With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last decade, already…

Probabilistic programming is a rapidly developing programming paradigm which enables the formulation of Bayesian models as programs and the automation of posterior inference. It facilitates the development of models and conducting Bayesian…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Computer models are widely used to study complex real world physical systems. However, there are major limitations to their direct use including: their complex structure; large numbers of inputs and outputs; and long evaluation times.…

Statistics comes in two main flavors: frequentist and Bayesian. For historical and technical reasons, frequentist statistics have traditionally dominated empirical data analysis, and certainly remain prevalent in empirical software…

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in…

A software library for constructing and learning probabilistic models is presented. The library offers a set of building blocks from which a large variety of static and dynamic models can be built. These include hierarchical models for…

Bayesian statistics has gained great momentum since the computational developments of the 1990s. Gradually, advances in Bayesian methodology and software have made Bayesian techniques much more accessible to applied statisticians and, in…

A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2…

The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more…

Scientific fields such as insider-threat detection and highway-safety planning often lack sufficient amounts of time-series data to estimate statistical models for the purpose of scientific discovery. Moreover, the available limited data…

We consider a wavefront model for the spread of Neolithic culture across Europe, and use Bayesian inference techniques to provide estimates for the parameters within this model, as constrained by radiocarbon data from Southern and Western…