相关论文: Bayesian radiocarbon modelling for beginners

Spreadsheet workbook contents are simple programs. Because of this, probabilistic programming techniques can be used to perform Bayesian inversion of spreadsheet computations. What is more, existing execution engines in spreadsheet…

With the growing abundance of unlabeled data in real-world tasks, researchers have to rely on the predictions given by black-boxed computational models. However, it is an often neglected fact that these models may be scoring high on…

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful technology for optimizing noisy expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, with a broad range of real-world applications in science, engineering, economics, manufacturing, and beyond. In this paper,…

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Determining the chronology of ancient handwritten manuscripts is essential for reconstructing the evolution of ideas. For the Dead Sea Scrolls, this is particularly important. However, there is an almost complete lack of date-bearing…

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

Closed-form, interpretable mathematical models have been instrumental for advancing our understanding of the world; with the data revolution, we may now be in a position to uncover new such models for many systems from physics to the social…

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…

Modern deep learning tools are remarkably effective in addressing intricate problems. However, their operation as black-box models introduces increased uncertainty in predictions. Additionally, they contend with various challenges,…

In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate…

Field experiments are often difficult and expensive to make. To bypass these issues, industrial companies have developed computational codes. These codes intend to be representative of the physical system, but come with a certain amount of…

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…

Software Engineering and the implementation of software has become a challenging task as many tools, frameworks and languages must be orchestrated into one functioning piece. This complexity increases the need for testing and analysis…

This textbook provides a systematic treatment of statistical machine learning for astronomical research through the lens of Bayesian inference, developing a unified framework that reveals connections between modern data analysis techniques…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian…