相关论文: Elicitation, measuring bias, checking for prior-da…

Model checking procedures are considered based on the use of the Dirichlet process and relative belief. This combination is seen to lead to some unique advantages for this problem. In particular, it avoids double use of the data and…

When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, the checking for consistency of the information being combined is good statistical practice. Here a new method is developed for detecting prior-data conflicts in Bayesian models…

Correlated proportions arise in longitudinal (panel) studies. A typical example is the ``opinion swing'' problem: ``Has the proportion of people favoring a politician changed after his recent speech to the nation on TV?''. Since the same…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

The features of a logically sound approach to a theory of statistical reasoning are discussed. A particular approach that satisfies these criteria is reviewed. This is seen to involve selection of a model, model checking, elicitation of a…

Bayesian likelihood-free inference, which is used to perform Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, enjoys an increasing number of important scientific applications. However, many aspects of a Bayesian analysis become more…

Dirichlet distribution and Dirichlet process as its infinite dimensional generalization are primarily used conjugate prior of categorical and multinomial distributions in Bayesian statistics. Extensions have been proposed to broaden…

Eliciting informative prior distributions for Bayesian inference can often be complex and challenging. While popular methods rely on asking experts probability based questions to quantify uncertainty, these methods are not without their…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Dirichlet distributions are probability measures on the unit simplex. They are often used as prior distributions in modeling categorical data, such as in topic analysis of text data. Motivated by this application, we consider Monte Carlo…

We derive the conjugate prior of the Dirichlet and beta distributions and explore it with numerical examples to gain an intuitive understanding of the distribution itself, its hyperparameters, and conditions concerning its convergence. Due…

In contingency table analysis, one is interested in testing whether a model of interest (e.g., the independent or symmetry model) holds using goodness-of-fit tests. When the null hypothesis where the model is true is rejected, the interest…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Incorporation of expert information in inference or decision settings is often important, especially in cases where data are unavailable, costly or unreliable. One approach is to elicit prior quantiles from an expert and then to fit these…

In Bayesian analysis, prior elicitation, or the process of facilitating the expression of one's beliefs to inform statistical modeling, is an essential yet challenging step. Analysts often have beliefs about real-world variables and their…

Expert systems applications that involve uncertain inference can be represented by a multidimensional contingency table. These tables offer a general approach to inferring with uncertain evidence, because they can embody any form of…

This paper develops a Bayesian approach for assessing equivalence and non-inferiority hypotheses in two-arm trials using relative belief ratios. A relative belief ratio is a measure of statistical evidence and can indicate evidence either…

Recent work [ 14 ] has introduced a method for prior elicitation that utilizes records of expert decisions to infer a prior distribution. While this method provides a promising approach to eliciting expert uncertainty, it has only been…

This paper outlines a framework for quantifying the prior's contribution to posterior inference in the presence of prior-likelihood discordance, a broader concept than the usual notion of prior-likelihood conflict. We achieve this dual…