相关论文: Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dyn…

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…

To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…

In the post-pandemic era of COVID-19, hospitalization remains a primary public health concern and wastewater surveillance has become an important tool for monitoring its dynamics at the level of community. However, there is usually no…

The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed…

The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…

A Bayesian multivariate model with a structured covariance matrix for multi-way nested data is proposed. This flexible modeling framework allows for positive and for negative associations among clustered observations, and generalizes the…

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…

Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…

Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying public health intervention on the course of an infectious disease epidemic is an important methodological challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the effects…

Molecular phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions generally assume time-homogeneous substitution processes. Motivated by computational convenience, this assumption sacrifices biological realism and offers little opportunity to…

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

Mathematical modelling of epidemiological and coevolutionary dynamics is widely being used to improve disease management strategies of infectious diseases. Many diseases present some form of intra-host quiescent stage, also known as covert…

The purpose of this study is to leverage modern technology (such as mobile or web apps in Beckman et al. (2014)) to enrich epidemiology data and infer the transmission of disease. Homogeneity related research on population level has been…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

We develop Bayesian nonparametric models for spatially indexed data of mixed type. Our work is motivated by challenges that occur in environmental epidemiology, where the usual presence of several confounding variables that exhibit complex…

We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…

Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…