相关论文: Cointegrated Continuous-time Linear State Space an…

During the last two decades, locally stationary processes have been widely studied in the time series literature. In this paper we consider the locally-stationary vector-auto-regression model of order one, or LS-VAR(1), and estimate its…

Examples of stochastic processes whose state space representations involve functions of an integral type structure $$I_{t}^{(a,b)}:=\int_{0}^{t}b(Y_{s})e^{-\int_{s}^{t}a(Y_{r})dr}ds, \quad t\ge 0$$ are studied under an ergodic…

State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…

We concentrate our study on a recent process algebra - PALOMA - intended to capture interactions between spatially distributed agents, for example in collective adaptive systems. New agent-based semantic rules for deriving the underlying…

Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…

Cyclostationary linear inverse models (CS-LIMs), generalized versions of the classical (stationary) LIM, are advanced data-driven techniques for extracting the first-order time-dependent dynamics and random forcing relevant information from…

Cointegration is an important topic for time-series, and describes a relationship between two series in which a linear combination is stationary. Classically, the test for cointegration is based on a two stage process in which first the…

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

We investigate nonlinear prediction/regression in an online setting and introduce a hybrid model that effectively mitigates, via a joint mechanism through a state space formulation, the need for domain-specific feature engineering issues of…

L\'evy processes, known for their ability to model complex dynamics with skewness, heavy tails and discontinuities, play a critical role in stochastic modeling across various domains. However, inference for most L\'evy processes, whether in…

Medical time series are central to healthcare, enabling continuous monitoring and supporting timely clinical decisions. Despite recent progress, existing methods struggle to jointly model local-global dynamics and handle nonstationarities…

Classical linear regression is considered for a case when regression parameters depend on the external random environment. The last is described as a continuous time Markov chain with finite state space. Here the expected sojourn times in…

The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, identifiability issues have led practitioners to abandon it in favor of the simpler but more restrictive Vector…

We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…

Mixed spatial autoregressive (SAR) models with numerical covariates have been well studied. However, as non-numerical data, such as functional data and compositional data, receive substantial amounts of attention and are applied to…

We consider Markov chains on general state spaces in stationary random environment which are defined by a random mapping that is contractive up to a bounded perturbation. We prove their convergence to a limiting law, providing convergence…

In many applications, data are observed as matrices with temporal dependence. Matrix-variate time series modeling is a new branch of econometrics. Although stylized facts in several fields, the existing models do not account for regime…

Particle accelerators are complex systems that focus, guide, and accelerate intense charged particle beams to high energy. Beam diagnostics present a challenging problem due to limited non-destructive measurements, computationally demanding…

This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…

We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the…