相关论文: Is Gun Violence Contagious?
Researchers regard crime as a social phenomenon that is influenced by several physical, social, and economic factors. Different types of crimes are said to have different motivations. Theft, for instance, is a crime that is based on…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
To obtain operational insights regarding the crime of burglary in London we consider the estimation of effects of covariates on the intensity of spatial point patterns. By taking into account localised properties of criminal behaviour, we…
Security games model the confrontation between a defender protecting a set of targets and an attacker who tries to capture them. A variant of these games assumes security interdependence between targets, facilitating contagion of an attack.…
Human flourishing is often severely limited by persistent violence. Quantitative conflict research has found common temporal and other statistical patterns in warfare, but very little is understood about its general spatial patterns. While…
This paper applies new and recently introduced approaches to study trends in gun violence in the United States. We use techniques in both the time and frequency domain to provide a more complete understanding of gun violence dynamics. We…
In applications like environment monitoring and pollution control, physical quantities are modeled by spatio-temporal fields. It is of interest to learn the statistical distribution of such fields as a function of space, time or both. In…
Spatio-temporal interaction is inherent to cases of infectious diseases and occurrences of earthquakes, whereas the spread of other events, such as cancer or crime, is less evident. Statistical significance tests of space-time clustering…
Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…
Social contagion has been studied in various contexts. Many instances of social contagion can be modeled as an infection process where a specific state (adoption of product, fad, knowledge, behavior, etc.) spreads from individual to…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets…
Many causal processes have spatial and temporal dimensions. Yet the classic causal inference framework is not directly applicable when the treatment and outcome variables are generated by spatio-temporal point processes. We extend the…
Containing the spreading of crime in urban societies remains a major challenge. Empirical evidence suggests that, left unchecked, crimes may be recurrent and proliferate. On the other hand, eradicating a culture of crime may be difficult,…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models are now available, their…
A spatiotemporal noise is assumed to reflect the environmental fluctuation in a spatially extended tumor system. We introduce firstly the structure factor to reveal the invasive tumor growth quantitatively. The homogenous environment can…
Forest fire spreading is a complex phenomenon characterized by a stochastic behavior. Nowadays, the enormous quantity of georeferenced data and the availability of powerful techniques for their analysis can provide a very careful picture of…