相关论文: Is Gun Violence Contagious?
Analysis of gun violence in the United States has utilized various models based on spatiotemporal point processes. Previous studies have identified a contagion effect in gun violence, characterized by bursts of diffusion across urban…
Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
Modern armed conflicts have a tendency to cluster together and spread geographically. However, the geography of most conflicts remains under-studied. To fill this gap, this article presents a new indicator that measures two key geographical…
Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature…
Information, ideas, and diseases, or more generally, contagions, spread over space and time through individual transmissions via social networks, as well as through external sources. A detailed picture of any diffusion process can be…
Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process,…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
Although social and biomedical scientists have long been interested in the process through which ideas and behaviors diffuse, the identification of causal diffusion effects, also known as peer and contagion effects, remains challenging.…
Acts of political violence in the continental United States have increased dramatically in the last decade. For this rise in political violence, we are interested in where and when such incidents occur: how are the locations and times of…
The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…
This paper introduces new methods for studying the prevalence of terrorism around the world and over time. Our analysis treats spatial prevalence of terrorism, the changing profile of groups carrying out the acts of terrorism, and trends in…
Increasing integration and availability of data on large groups of persons has been accompanied by proliferation of statistical and other algorithmic prediction tools in banking, insurance, marketiNg, medicine, and other FIelds (see e.g.,…
There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited…
In the last decades, the notion that cities are in a state of equilibrium with a centralised organisation has given place to the viewpoint of cities in disequilibrium and organised from bottom to up. In this perspective, cities are evolving…
Deterministic models are developed for the spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings. The models are focused on outbreaks that arise from a small number of infected hosts imported into sub-regions of the geographical…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
While the presence of clustering in crime and security event data is well established, the mechanism(s) by which clustering arises is not fully understood. Both contagion models and history independent correlation models are applied, but…
The position of a reaction front, propagating into a metastable state, fluctuates because of the shot noise of reactions and diffusion. A recent theory [B. Meerson, P.V. Sasorov, and Y. Kaplan, Phys. Rev. E 84, 011147 (2011)] gave a closed…
Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…