相关论文: Parsimony, model adequacy and periodic correlation…

Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso…

Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is…

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

This article proposes omnibus portmanteau tests for contrasting adequacy of time series models. The test statistics are based on combining the autocorrelation function of the conditional residuals, the autocorrelation function of the…

Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting…

Forecast combination is widely recognized as a preferred strategy over forecast selection due to its ability to mitigate the uncertainty associated with identifying a single "best" forecast. Nonetheless, sophisticated combinations are often…

Time series prediction underpins a broad range of downstream tasks across many scientific domains. Recent advances and increasing adoption of black-box machine learning models for time series prediction highlight the critical need for…

This paper proposes a novel framework for certifying the fairness of predictive models trained on biased data. It draws from query answering for incomplete and inconsistent databases to formulate the problem of consistent range…

An important feature of all real-world networks is that the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic…

Deep generative models for anomaly detection in multivariate time-series are typically trained by maximizing data likelihood. However, likelihood in observation space measures marginal density rather than conformity to structured temporal…

We study the accuracy of forecasts in the diffusion index forecast model with possibly weak loadings. The default option to construct forecasts is to estimate the factors through principal component analysis (PCA) on the available predictor…

We analyse predictions of future recruitment to a multi-centre clinical trial based on a maximum-likelihood fitting of a commonly used hierarchical Poisson-Gamma model for recruitments at individual centres. We consider the asymptotic…

This paper considers both the least squares and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for the recently proposed scalable ARMA model, a parametric infinite-order vector AR model, and their asymptotic normality is also established. It makes…

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…

Evolution is a process that is influenced by various environmental factors, e.g. the interactions between different species, genes, and biogeographical properties. Hence, it is interesting to study the combined evolutionary history of…

The existence of multiple, equally accurate models for a given predictive task leads to predictive multiplicity, where a ``Rashomon set'' of models achieve similar accuracy but diverges in their individual predictions. This inconsistency…

The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

Motion forecasting plays a significant role in various domains (e.g., autonomous driving, human-robot interaction), which aims to predict future motion sequences given a set of historical observations. However, the observed elements may be…

Flow matching policies learn continuous velocity fields that transport noise to actions, enabling fast deterministic inference for robot manipulation. However, standard training optimizes a pointwise velocity objective while inference…