相关论文: Parsimony, model adequacy and periodic correlation…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

Predictive modeling and time-pattern analysis are increasingly critical in this swiftly shifting retail environment to improve operational efficiency and informed decision-making. This paper reports a comprehensive application of…

A reservoir computer (RC) is a type of simplified recurrent neural network architecture that has demonstrated success in the prediction of spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical systems. A further advantage of RC is that it reproduces intrinsic…

Zero inflation is a common nuisance while monitoring disease progression over time. This article proposes a new observation driven model for zero inflated and over-dispersed count time series. The counts given the past history of the…

Recent advancements in deep learning models for time series forecasting have been significant. These models often leverage fundamental time series properties such as seasonality and non-stationarity, which may suggest an intrinsic link…

Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

Reliable river flow forecasting is an essential component of flood risk management and early warning systems. It enables improved emergency response coordination and is critical for protecting infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems…

Time series forecasting and anomaly detection are common tasks for practitioners in industries such as retail, manufacturing, advertising and energy. Two unique challenges stand out: (1) efficiently and accurately forecasting time series or…

Generative Reward Models (GenRMs) and LLM-as-a-Judge exhibit deceptive alignment by producing correct judgments for incorrect reasons, as they are trained and evaluated to prioritize Outcome Accuracy, which undermines their ability to…

It has been documented that Spread-Error equality and a flat rank histogram are necessary but insufficient for demonstrating ensemble forecast reliability. Nevertheless, these metrics are heavily relied upon, both in the literature and at…

Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample validity guarantees, making it an attractive tool for constructing reliable prediction sets. However, existing approaches commonly…

Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are…

Modern applications require methods that are computationally feasible on large datasets but also preserve statistical efficiency. Frequently, these two concerns are seen as contradictory: approximation methods that enable computation are…

An appeal for symmetry is made to build established notions of specific representation and specific nonlinearity of measurement (often called model error) into a canonical linear regression model. Additive components are derived from the…

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Accurate forecasting of passenger flow (i.e., ridership) is critical to the operation of urban metro systems. Previous studies mainly model passenger flow as time series by aggregating individual trips and then perform forecasting based on…

We explore a combinatorial framework which efficiently quantifies the asymmetries between minima and maxima in local fluctuations of time series. We firstly showcase its performance by applying it to a battery of synthetic cases. We find…

Existing training criteria in automatic speech recognition(ASR) permit the model to freely explore more than one time alignments between the feature and label sequences. In this paper, we use entropy to measure a model's uncertainty, i.e.…

Intermittency is a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building intermittent demand forecasting models, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several…

In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…