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This report presents an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation of the maximum-likelihood parameter values of constrained multivariate autoregressive Gaussian state-space (MARSS) models. The MARSS model can be written:…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-02-19 Elizabeth E. Holmes

We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-18 Qingcan Wang , Weinan E

This paper details how to parameterize the posterior distribution of state-space systems to generate improved optimization problems for system identification using variational inference. Three different parameterizations of the assumed…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-01-15 Dimas Abreu Archanjo Dutra

We propose a machine learning framework for parameter estimation of single mode Gaussian quantum states. Under a Bayesian framework, our approach estimates parameters of suitable prior distributions from measured data. For phase-space…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-08-16 Neel Kanth Kundu , Matthew R. McKay , Ranjan K. Mallik

We present two approximate Bayesian inference methods for parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models with space-dependent and state-dependent parameters. We demonstrate that these methods provide accurate and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-04 David A. Barajas-Solano , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

This paper proposes maximum (quasi)likelihood estimation for high dimensional factor models with regime switching in the loadings. The model parameters are estimated jointly by the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm, which in the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-04-11 Giovanni Urga , Fa Wang

This paper is devoted to parameter estimation for partially observed polynomial state space models. This class includes discretely observed affine or more generally polynomial Markov processes. The polynomial structure allows for the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-11 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

The stochastic motions of a diffusing particle contain information concerning the particle's interactions with binding partners and with its local environment. However, accurate determination of the underlying diffusive properties, beyond…

生物物理 · 物理学 2016-12-21 Peter K. Koo , Simon G. J. Mochrie

In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-05-22 Jian He , Asma Khedher , Peter Spreij

In this paper, we present a novel optimization algorithm designed specifically for estimating state-space models to deal with heavy-tailed measurement noise and constraints. Our algorithm addresses two significant limitations found in…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-11-19 Yifan Yu , Shengjie Xiu , Daniel P. Palomar

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-24 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a versatile tool for model parameter estimation in latent data models. When processing large data sets or data stream however, EM becomes intractable since it requires the whole data set to be…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-10-18 Sylvain Le Corff , Gersende Fort

The Statistical Finite Element Method (statFEM) offers a Bayesian framework for integrating computational models with observational data, thus providing improved predictions for structural health monitoring and digital twinning. This paper…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-03-26 Vahab Narouie , Henning Wessels , Fehmi Cirak , Ulrich Römer

Modern autonomous systems are purposed for many challenging scenarios, where agents will face unexpected events and complicated tasks. The presence of disturbance noise with control command and unknown inputs can negatively impact robot…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2023-09-22 Zida Wu , Zhaoliang Zheng , Ankur Mehta

Modeling and inference with multivariate sequences is central in a number of signal processing applications such as acoustics, social network analysis, biomedical, and finance, to name a few. The linear-Gaussian state-space model is a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-01-13 Émilie Chouzenoux , Víctor Elvira

We design specific neural networks (NNs) for the identification of switching nonlinear systems in the state-space form, which explicitly model the switching behavior and address the inherent coupling between system parameters and switching…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-03-14 Yanxin Zhang , Chengpu Yu , Filippo Fabiani

We present an approach for synthesising observational data with elastodynamic finite element models by extending the statistical finite element method (statFEM) framework. The proposed formulation adopts a Bayesian filtering approach to…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-04-15 Igor Kavrakov , Yaswanth Sai Jetti , Ahmet Oguzhan Yuksel , Fehmi Cirak

State-space models are ubiquitous in the statistical literature since they provide a flexible and interpretable framework for analyzing many time series. In most practical applications, the state-space model is specified through a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-18 Thi Tuyet Trang Chau , Pierre Ailliot , Valérie Monbet

Data-driven models for nonlinear dynamical systems based on approximating the underlying Koopman operator or generator have proven to be successful tools for forecasting, feature learning, state estimation, and control. It has become well…

动力系统 · 数学 2023-10-26 Samuel E. Otto , Sebastian Peitz , Clarence W. Rowley

Multi-object state estimation is a fundamental problem for robotic applications where a robot must interact with other moving objects. Typically, other objects' relevant state features are not directly observable, and must instead be…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2022-12-15 Angad Singh , Omar Makhlouf , Maximilian Igl , Joao Messias , Arnaud Doucet , Shimon Whiteson