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This paper is concerned with black-box identification of nonlinear state space models. By using a basis function expansion within the state space model, we obtain a flexible structure. The model is identified using an expectation…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-11-17 Andreas Svensson , Thomas B. Schön , Arno Solin , Simo Särkkä

We consider a randomised implementation of the finite element method (FEM) for elliptic partial differential equations on high-dimensional models. This is motivated by applications where model predictions are essential for real-time process…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-07-30 Yue Wu , Dimitris Kamilis , Nick Polydorides

We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-04 Matteo Barigozzi , Daniele Massacci

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-10-19 John W. Smith , Leah R. Johnson , Robert Q. Thomas

A class of quasi-distribution evaluation criteria based on piecewise Bezier curves is proposed to address the issue of the inability to objectively evaluate finite element models. During the optimization design of mechanical parts, finite…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-09-09 Runkai Wen , Yukun Chai , Lingxin Wang , Ruochen Du , Xingtian Long , Zhiyang Liu , Peng Wu , Yiduo Wang

A well-established approach for inferring full displacement and stress fields from possibly sparse data is to calibrate the parameter of a given constitutive model using a Bayesian update. After calibration, a (stochastic) forward…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2023-08-09 Vahab B. Narouie , Henning Wessels , Ulrich Römer

We perform approximate inference in state-space models with nonlinear state transitions. Without parameterizing a generative model, we apply Bayesian update formulas using a local linearity approximation parameterized by neural networks.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-26 David Ruhe , Patrick Forré

In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-07-02 Matthew Edwards , Stefano Castruccio , Dorit Hammerling

This letter proposes a new method for joint state and parameter estimation in uncertain dynamical systems. We exploit the partial errors-in-variables (PEIV) principle and formulate a regression problem in the sense of weighted total least…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-07-03 Peng Liu , Kailai Li , Gustaf Hendeby , Fredrik Gustafsson

Kalman Filter requires the true parameters of the model and solves optimal state estimation recursively. Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is applicable for estimating the parameters of the model that are not available before Kalman…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-26 Zhuangwei Shi

Max-affine regression refers to a model where the unknown regression function is modeled as a maximum of $k$ unknown affine functions for a fixed $k \geq 1$. This generalizes linear regression and (real) phase retrieval, and is closely…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-24 Avishek Ghosh , Ashwin Pananjady , Adityanand Guntuboyina , Kannan Ramchandran

The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is of key importance for inference in latent variable models including mixture of regressors and experts, missing observations. This paper introduces a novel EM algorithm, called…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-04 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Hoi-To Wai

Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field (GRF) by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-20 Karl T. Pazdernik , Ranjan Maitra

Expectation maximisation (EM) is usually thought of as an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a mixture distribution, however it can also be used for supervised learning when class labels are available. As such, EM…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-01 Graham W. Pulford

Structural identification and damage detection can be generalized as the simultaneous estimation of input forces, physical parameters, and dynamical states. Although Kalman-type filters are efficient tools to address this problem, the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-10-04 Daniz Teymouri , Omid Sedehi , Lambros S. Katafygiotis , Costas Papadimitriou

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-30 Ji Xu , Daniel Hsu , Arian Maleki

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

System identification is a key step for model-based control, estimator design, and output prediction. This work considers the offline identification of partially observed nonlinear systems. We empirically show that the certainty-equivalent…

State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-28 Anthony Ebert , Pierre Pudlo , Kerrie Mengersen , Paul Wu , Christopher Drovandi

We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-08 Prakul Sunil Hiremath