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In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-22 J Hoogland , O Efthimiou , TL Nguyen , TPA Debray

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Evangelos Dimitriou , Edwin Fong , Jens Magelund Tarp , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Brieuc Lehmann

This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-20 Jad Beyhum , Samuele Centorrino , Jean-Pierre Florens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

We consider a general difference-in-differences model in which the treatment variable of interest may be non-binary and its value may change in each period. It is generally difficult to estimate treatment parameters defined with the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-05-30 Takahide Yanagi

To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each patient, physicians need to customize treatments for patients with the same diagnosis, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-25 Xiao Li , Brent R Logan , S M Ferdous Hossain , Erica E M Moodie

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

An individualized treatment regime (ITR) is a decision rule that assigns treatments based on patients' characteristics. The value function of an ITR is the expected outcome in a counterfactual world had this ITR been implemented. Recently,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-16 Pan Zhao , Julie Josse , Shu Yang

A treatment benefit predictor (TBP) is a function that maps patient characteristics to an estimate of the treatment benefit for that patient. Such predictors support optimizing individualized treatment decisions, which are central to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Yuan Xia , Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Paul Gustafson

One of the primary goals of statistical precision medicine is to learn optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs). The classification-based, or machine learning-based, approach to estimating optimal ITRs was first introduced in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-18 Sophia Yazzourh , Nikki L. B. Freeman

Mediation analysis with contemporaneously observed multiple mediators is an important area of causal inference. Recent approaches for multiple mediators are often based on parametric models and thus may suffer from model misspecification.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-30 Samrat Roy , Michael J. Daniels , Brendan J. Kelly , Jason Roy

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Continuous treatments (e.g., doses) arise often in practice, but many available causal effect estimators are limited by either requiring parametric models for the effect curve, or by not allowing doubly robust covariate adjustment. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-04-21 Edward H. Kennedy , Zongming Ma , Matthew D. McHugh , Dylan S. Small

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal…

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with a survival outcome are often challenged by immortal time (IMT), a period of follow-up during which the survival outcome cannot occur because of the observed later treatment initiation. It has…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-02-08 Jiping Wang , Peter Peduzzi , Michael Wininger , Shuangge Ma

In realistic scenarios, multivariate timeseries evolve over case-by-case time-scales. This is particularly clear in medicine, where the rate of clinical events varies by ward, patient, and application. Increasingly complex models have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-06 Jacob Deasy , Ari Ercole , Pietro Liò

A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of medical decisions that adapts to the evolving clinical status of a patient over time. To facilitate personalized care, it is crucial to assess the probability of each available treatment option…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Jiefeng Bi , Matteo Borrotti , Bernardo Nipoti

We present nonparametric algorithms for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules. The proposed algorithms are based on the XGBoost algorithm, which is known as one of the most powerful algorithms in the machine learning literature.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-02-04 Duzhe Wang , Haoda Fu , Po-Ling Loh

Establishing causality is a fundamental goal in fields like medicine and social sciences. While randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for causal inference, they are not always feasible or ethical. Observational studies can…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-12-03 Andrew Ying

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone