相关论文: Gaussian process modeling for stochastic multi-fid…

In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian point of view for predicting real continuous-time processes. We give two equivalent definitions of a Bayesian predictor and study some properties: admissibility, prediction sufficiency, non-unbiasedness,…

The recent accelerated growth in the computing power has generated popularization of experimentation with dynamic computer models in various physical and engineering applications. Despite the extensive statistical research in computer…

Non-Gaussian observations such as binary responses are common in some computer experiments. Motivated by the analysis of a class of cell adhesion experiments, we introduce a generalized Gaussian process model for binary responses, which…

This paper presents a new fuel cycle benchmarking analysis methodology by coupling Gaussian process regression, a popular technique in Machine Learning, to dynamic time warping, a mechanism widely used in speech recognition. Together they…

High-precision measurements require optimal setups and analysis tools to achieve continuous improvements. Systematic corrections need to be modeled with high accuracy and known uncertainty to reconstruct underlying physical phenomena. To…

Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by…

High-fidelity scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows quickly become prohibitively expensive, especially at high Reynolds numbers. As a remedy, we may use multifidelity models (MFM) to construct predictive models for flow quantities…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a highly effective tool for the safe online optimization of systems, due to its high sample efficiency and noise robustness. To further enhance its efficiency, reduced physical models of the system can…

This paper provides a bound on the number of numeric operations (fixed or floating point) that can safely be performed before accuracy is lost. This work has important implications for control systems with safety-critical software, as these…

We propose a robust optimization approach for constructing confidence bands for stochastic processes using a finite number of simulated sample paths. Our approach can be used to quantify uncertainty in realizations of stochastic processes…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Computer simulations of differential equations require a time discretization, which inhibits to identify the exact solution with certainty. Probabilistic simulations take this into account via uncertainty quantification. The construction of…

Science and engineering fields use computer simulation extensively. These simulations are often run at multiple levels of sophistication to balance accuracy and efficiency. Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling reduces the computational cost by…

Ice sheet simulations suffer from vast parametric uncertainties, such as the basal sliding boundary condition or geothermal heat flux. Quantifying the resulting uncertainties in predictions is of utmost importance to support judicious…

Stochastic process models are now commonly used to analyse complex biological, ecological and industrial systems. Increasingly there is a need to deliver accurate estimates of model parameters and assess model fit by optimizing the timing…

In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a…

Investigating uncertainties in computer simulations can be prohibitive in terms of computational costs, since the simulator needs to be run over a large number of input values. Building an emulator, i.e. a statistical surrogate model of the…

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process, computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of…