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Model Selections in Bayesian Statistics are primarily made with statistics known as Bayes Factors, which are directly related to Posterior Probabilities of models. Bayes Factors require a careful assessment of prior distributions as in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-12 Yekun Wang , Luis Pericchi

When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-16 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari

We propose a Bayesian approach to estimating parameters in multiclass functional models. Unordered multinomial probit, ordered multinomial probit and multinomial logistic models are considered. We use finite random series priors based on a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-03 Xiuqi Li , Subhashis Ghosal

The Yule--Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-04 Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini , Cristiano Villa

Bayesian predictive densities when the observed data $x$ and the target variable $y$ to be predicted have different distributions are investigated by using the framework of information geometry. The performance of predictive densities is…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

In this work, we empirically explore the question: how can we assess the quality of samples from some target distribution? We assume that the samples are provided by some valid Monte Carlo procedure, so we are guaranteed that the collection…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-06-21 Arjumand Masood , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez

We investigate the use of normalizing flow (NF) models as flexible priors in Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for iterative Bayesian calibration. Trained on posteriors from previous analyses, these models can…

核理论 · 物理学 2026-04-02 Hendrik Roch , Chun Shen

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-14 Ajay Jasra , Seongil Jo , David Nott , Christine Shoemaker , Raul Tempone

We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-19 Jeong Eun Lee , Geoff K. Nicholls , Robin J. Ryder

The choice of the prior distribution is a key aspect of Bayesian analysis. For the spatial regression setting a subjective prior choice for the parameters may not be trivial, from this perspective, using the objective Bayesian analysis…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-04-10 Jose A. Ordoñez , Marcos O. Prates , Larissa A. Matos , Victor H. Lachos

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

This paper focuses on the estimation of partially observed branching processes. First, the estimators from a frequentist perspective proposed in the literature are reviewed. The main objective of this paper is to present computational tools…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-21 Miguel González , Inés M. del Puerto , Manuel Serrano-Pastor

Feature allocation models postulate a sampling distribution whose parameters are derived from shared features. Bayesian models place a prior distribution on the feature allocation, and Markov chain Monte Carlo is typically used for model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-29 David B. Dahl , Devin J. Johnson , R. Jacob Andros

In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-09-25 M. J. Bayarri , J. O. Berger , A. Forte , G. García-Donato

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-02-06 Brunero Liseo , Antonio Parisi

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-10-27 Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen , Subhabrata Sen

The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-30 Jungeum Kim , Veronika Rockova
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