相关论文: Reliability estimates for three factor score predi…

Composite likelihood inference has gained much popularity thanks to its computational manageability and its theoretical properties. Unfortunately, performing composite likelihood ratio tests is inconvenient because of their awkward…

Computable Stein discrepancies have been deployed for a variety of applications, ranging from sampler selection in posterior inference to approximate Bayesian inference to goodness-of-fit testing. Existing convergence-determining Stein…

Optimum designs for parameter estimation in generalized regression models are standardly based on the Fisher information matrix (cf. Atkinson et al (2014) for a recent exposition). The corresponding optimality criteria are related to the…

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

In this paper we analyze the joint rate distortion function (RDF), for a tuple of correlated sources taking values in abstract alphabet spaces (i.e., continuous) subject to two individual distortion criteria. First, we derive structural…

Reparameterization (RP) and likelihood ratio (LR) gradient estimators are used to estimate gradients of expectations throughout machine learning and reinforcement learning; however, they are usually explained as simple mathematical tricks,…

Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by…

Predictive modeling uncovers knowledge and insights regarding a hypothesized data generating mechanism (DGM). Results from different studies on a complex DGM, derived from different data sets, and using complicated models and algorithms,…

Factorial designs are widely used due to their ability to accommodate multiple factors simultaneously. The factor-based regression with main effects and some interactions is the dominant strategy for downstream data analysis, delivering…

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

When providing probabilistic forecasts for uncertain future events, it is common to strive for calibrated forecasts, that is, the predictive distribution should be compatible with the observed outcomes. Several notions of calibration are…

Recommender systems are intrinsically tied to a reliability/coverage dilemma: The more reliable we desire the forecasts, the more conservative the decision will be and thus, the fewer items will be recommended. This causes a detriment to…

Consider two forecasters, each making a single prediction for a sequence of events over time. We ask a relatively basic question: how might we compare these forecasters, either online or post-hoc, while avoiding unverifiable assumptions on…

Consider a regression or some regression-type model for a certain response variable where the linear predictor includes an ordered factor among the explanatory variables. The inclusion of a factor of this type can take place is a few…

Factor models are a very efficient way to describe high dimensional vectors of data in terms of a small number of common relevant factors. This problem, which is of fundamental importance in many disciplines, is usually reformulated in…

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Robust estimators, like the median of a point set, are important for data analysis in the presence of outliers. We study robust estimators for locationally uncertain points with discrete distributions. That is, each point in a data set has…

Items in a test are often used as a basis for making decisions and such tests are therefore required to have good psychometric properties, like unidimensionality. In many cases the sum score is used in combination with a threshold to decide…

Kendall's tau and conditional Kendall's tau matrices are multivariate (conditional) dependence measures between the components of a random vector. For large dimensions, available estimators are computationally expensive and can be improved…