相关论文: Estimating the turning point location in shifted e…

Image analysis frequently deals with shape estimation and image reconstruction. The ob jects of interest in these problems may be thought of as random sets, and one is interested in finding a representative, or expected, set. We consider a…

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…

This paper considers a sequence of random variables generated according to a common distribution. The distribution might undergo periods of transient changes at an unknown set of time instants, referred to as change-points. The objective is…

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…

We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop…

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating…

We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…

We present a review of some recent results on estimation of location parameter for several models of observations with cusp-type singularity at the change point. We suppose that the cusp-type models fit better to the real phenomena…

In this paper we consider a telegraph equation with time-dependent coefficients, governing the persistent random walk of a particle moving on the line with a time-varying velocity $c(t)$ and changing direction at instants distributed…

Synchrotron emissivities, absorptivities, and Faraday rotation and conversion coefficients are needed in modeling a variety of astrophysical sources, including Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) sources. We develop a method for estimating…

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the…

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Stochastic minimax optimization has drawn much attention over the past decade due to its broad applications in machine learning, signal processing and game theory. In some applications, the probability distribution of uncertainty depends on…

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in the case of observation of the trajectory of diffusion process. We suppose that the drift coefficient has a singularity of cusp-type and the unknown parameter corresponds to the position of…

We consider a simple mean reverting diffusion process, with piecewise constant drift and diffusion coefficients, discontinuous at a fixed threshold. We discuss estimation of drift and diffusion parameters from discrete observations of the…

As a new method for detecting change-points in high-resolution time series, we apply Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the distributions of ordinal patterns in different parts of a time series. The main advantage of this approach is its…

In this paper, we propose and analyze a trust-region model-based algorithm for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Our framework utilizes random models of an objective function $f(x)$, obtained from stochastic…