相关论文: Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebo…
Renewal models are widely used in statistical epidemiology as semi-mechanistic models of disease transmission. While primarily used for estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, they can also be used for generating projections,…
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one…
Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…
The spread of Ebola virus in 2014 is unprecedented. The epidemic is still affecting West Africa, exacerbated by extraordinary socioeconomic disadvantages and health system inadequacies. With the aim of understanding, predicting, and control…
The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades. Here we find…
We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability. The method is applicable to a class…
In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been been sustained for greater than 10 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous…
We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
${\bf Background:}$ The early growth dynamics of the West African Ebola virus epidemic has been qualitatively different for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, it is important to understand these disparate dynamics as trends of a…
A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations,…