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Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or…

概率论 · 数学 2015-07-15 Paul Dupuis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis , Petr Plechac

Sequential filtering and spatial inverse problems assimilate data points distributed either temporally (in the case of filtering) or spatially (in the case of spatial inverse problems). Sometimes it is possible to choose the position of…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-08-19 Sahani Pathiraja , Claudia Schillings , Philipp Wacker

In the framework of the estimation of safety margins in nuclear accident analysis, a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties tainting the results of computer simulations is essential. Accurate uncertainty propagation (estimation of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-01-01 Bertrand Iooss , Amandine Marrel

Discrete stochastic processes (DSP) are instrumental for modelling the dynamics of probabilistic systems and have a wide spectrum of applications in science and engineering. DSPs are usually analyzed via Monte Carlo methods since the number…

量子物理 · 物理学 2020-08-17 Carsten Blank , Daniel K. Park , Francesco Petruccione

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-25 Hyun-Suk Lee , Do-Yup Kim , Kyungsik Min

Sequential design is a highly active field of research in active learning which provides a general framework for designing computer experiments with limited computational budgets. It aims to create efficient surrogate models to replace…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-03 Paul Lartaud , Philippe Humbert , Josselin Garnier

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2025-06-10 Hans Buehler , Blanka Horvath , Yannick Limmer , Thorsten Schmidt

This paper studies a data-driven predictive control for a class of control-affine systems which is subject to uncertainty. With the accessibility to finite sample measurements of the uncertain variables, we aim to find controls which are…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-05-03 Dan Li , Dariush Fooladivanda , Sonia Martinez

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-06-08 Benjamin Letham , Portia A. Letham , Cynthia Rudin , Edward P. Browne

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-01-13 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel

Using mathematical models to assist in the interpretation of experiments is becoming increasingly important in research across applied mathematics, and in particular in biology and ecology. In this context, accurate parameter estimation is…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-29 Jie Qi , Ruth E. Baker

Quantum Inverse Problem (QIP) is the problem of estimating an unknown quantum system $\rho$ from a set of measurements, whereas the classical counterpart is the Inverse Problem of estimating a distribution from a set of observations. In…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-01-19 Ningping Cao , Jie Xie , Aonan Zhang , Shi-Yao Hou , Lijian Zhang , Bei Zeng

The design of multiple experiments is commonly undertaken via suboptimal strategies, such as batch (open-loop) design that omits feedback or greedy (myopic) design that does not account for future effects. This paper introduces new…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-04-29 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2018-01-09 Randa Herzallah

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

Stochastic Optimal Control Problems (SOCPs) plays a major role in the sequential decision-making challenges. There exist various iterative algorithms, under framework of stochastic maximum principle, that sequentially find the optimal…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-03-17 Mohsen Amidzadeh

This paper formulates an input design approach for truncated infinite impulse response identification in the context of implicit model representations recently used as basis for data-driven simulation and control approaches. Precisely, the…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-04-13 Andrea Iannelli , Mingzhou Yin , Roy S. Smith