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Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-05 Arne Henningsen , Guy Low , David Wuepper , Tobias Dalhaus , Hugo Storm , Dagim Belay , Stefan Hirsch

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

In this paper, we outline a principled approach to estimate an individualized treatment rule that is appropriate for data from observational studies where, in addition to treatment assignment not being independent of individual…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-05 Jeremy Roth , Noah Simon

Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-06 Tyler J. VanderWeele , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , M. Elizabeth Halloran

Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-05-02 Sokbae Lee , Bernard Salanié

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

This paper considers identifying and estimating causal effect parameters in a staggered treatment adoption setting -- that is, where a researcher has access to panel data and treatment timing varies across units. We consider the case where…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-08-08 Brantly Callaway , Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-08-26 Chao Zhang , Zhi Geng , Wei Li , Peng Ding

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

The case$^2$ study, also referred to as the case-case study design, is a valuable approach for conducting inference for treatment effects. Unlike traditional case-control studies, the case$^2$ design compares treatment in two types of cases…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-03 Kan Chen , Ting Ye , Dylan S. Small

Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the spatial treatment setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-27 Michael Pollmann

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-05-14 Samantha Kleinberg , Bud Mishra

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

Trial engagement effects are effects of trial participation on the outcome that are not mediated by treatment assignment. Most work on extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Lawson Ung , Tyler J. VanderWeele , Issa J. Dahabreh

Factorial experiments are ubiquitous in the social and biomedical sciences, but when units fail to comply with each assigned factors, identification and estimation of the average treatment effects become impossible without strong…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Matthew Blackwell , Nicole E. Pashley