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Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

When assessing causal effects, determining the target population to which the results are intended to generalize is a critical decision. Randomized and observational studies each have strengths and limitations for estimating causal effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-21 Irina Degtiar , Sherri Rose

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

Causal inference on multiple non-independent outcomes raises serious challenges, because multivariate techniques that properly account for the outcome's dependence structure need to be considered. We focus on the case of binary outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-05-11 Monia Lupparelli , Alessandra Mattei

Many trials are designed to collect outcomes at or around pre-specified times after randomization. If there is variability in the times when participants are actually assessed, this can pose a challenge to learning the effect of treatment,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-28 Bonnie B. Smith , Yujing Gao , Shu Yang , Ravi Varadhan , Andrea J. Apter , Daniel O. Scharfstein

Improving public policy is one of the key roles of governments, and they can do this in an evidence-based way using administrative data. Causal inference for observational data improves on current practice of using descriptive or predictive…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-01-18 Elena Tartaglia , Peter Rankin

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are common in many different scientific fields including epidemiology, ecology, and economics. As with all observational studies, such designs often suffer from unmeasured confounding, which generally…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs , Arvid Sjölander

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-16 Thai Pham

The health effects of environmental exposures have been studied for decades, typically using standard regression models to assess exposure-outcome associations found in observational non-experimental data. We propose and illustrate a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-09-20 Marie-Abele C. Bind , Donald B. Rubin

The causal effect of an intervention (treatment/exposure) on an outcome can be estimated by: i) specifying knowledge about the data-generating process; ii) assessing under what assumptions a target quantity, such as for example a causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-05 Michael Schomaker

Treatment effects estimated from a randomized controlled trial are local not only to the study population but also to the time at which the trial was conducted. The literature on generalizing experimental findings to new populations is…

Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Elizabeth Tipton , Michalis Mamakos

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

This paper considers identification and inference for the distribution of treatment effects conditional on observable covariates. Since the conditional distribution of treatment effects is not point identified without strong assumptions, we…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-11-23 Sungwon Lee

We focus on causal inference for longitudinal treatments, where units are assigned to treatments at multiple time points, aiming to assess the effect of different treatment sequences on an outcome observed at a final point. A common…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-14 Federico Ricciardi , Alessandra Mattei , Fabrizia Mealli