相关论文: Statistical look at reasons of involvement in wars

Analysis of wars and conflicts between regions has been an important topic of interest throughout the history of humankind. In the latter part of the 20th century, in the aftermath of two World Wars and the shadow of nuclear, biological,…

Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future…

The Syrian civil war has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources to the affected areas. In this…

Fashion is intertwined with external cultural factors, but identifying these links remains a manual process limited to only the most salient phenomena. We propose a data-driven approach to identify specific cultural factors affecting the…

We analyze the database prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011) for violent conflict, covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a…

Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…

The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…

Can we avoid wars at the crossroads of history? This question has been pursued by individuals, scholars, policymakers, and organizations throughout human history. In this research, we attempt to answer the question based on the recent…

Understanding the origins of militarized conflict is a complex, yet important undertaking. Existing research seeks to build this understanding by considering bi-lateral relationships between entity pairs (dyadic causes) and multi-lateral…

Although very large wars remain an enduring threat in global politics, we lack a clear understanding of how some wars become large and costly, while most do not. There are three possibilities: large conflicts start with and maintain intense…

There are numerous geo-climatic and human factors that contribute to the occurrence of natural disasters in the real-world scenario. Besides the study of causes and preconditions of such calamities, post-disaster analysis is essential for…

Conflicts, like many social processes, are related events that span multiple scales in time, from the instantaneous to multi-year developments, and in space, from one neighborhood to continents. Yet, there is little systematic work on…

I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict events in tandem with Gaussian processes to estimate…

Human flourishing is often severely limited by persistent violence. Quantitative conflict research has found common temporal and other statistical patterns in warfare, but very little is understood about its general spatial patterns. While…

Studies on interpersonal conflict have a long history and contain many suggestions for conflict typology. We use this as the basis of a novel annotation scheme and release a new dataset of situations and conflict aspect annotations. We then…

This paper investigates the evolving dynamics of international trade, emphasizing the strategic interplay between competition and cooperation within the global trade network. It argues that competitive advantages - rather than traditional…

We present an overview of the decision-theoretic framework of statistical causality, which is well-suited for formulating and solving problems of determining the effects of applied causes. The approach is described in detail, and is related…

Previous efforts to automate the detection of social and political events in text have primarily focused on identifying events described within single sentences or documents. Within a corpus of documents, these automated systems are unable…

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

The use of historical estimates in current studies is common in a wide variety of application areas. Nevertheless, despite their routine use the uncertainty associated with historical estimates is rarely properly accounted for in the…