相关论文: Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Analysis and Sa…

SIL (Safety Integrity Level) allocation plays a pivotal role in evaluating the significance of Safety Functions (SFs) within high-risk industries. The outcomes of a SIL allocation study determine the design specifications necessary to…

SIL (Safety Integrity Level) allocation plays a crucial role in defining the design requirements for Safety Functions (SFs) within high-risk industries. SIL is typically determined based on the estimated Probability of Failure on Demand…

O'Hearn's Incorrectness Logic (IL) has sparked renewed interest in static analyses that aim to detect program errors rather than prove their absence, thereby avoiding false alarms -- a critical factor for practical adoption in industrial…

Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…

The task of designing secure software systems is fraught with uncertainty, as data on uncommon attacks is limited, costs are difficult to estimate, and technology and tools are continually changing. Consequently, experts may interpret the…

We investigate the statistical methods applied throughout safety analysis of complex systems. The tolerance interval method implemented in the widely utilized 0.95|0.95 methodology is analyzed. We point out a remarkable weakness of the…

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…

Interconnected systems such as power systems and chemical processes are often required to satisfy safety properties in the presence of faults and attacks. Verifying safety of these systems, however, is computationally challenging due to…

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

A new test for measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations is introduced. It is based on the probability integral transform (PIT) of the ex post realized returns using the ex ante probability distributions underlying the…

Recently, a novel approach towards semi-quantitative IT security risk assessment has been proposed in the draft IEC 62443-3-2. This approach is analyzed from several different angles, e.g. embedding into the overall standard series,…

In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship…

Confidence interval of mean is often used when quoting statistics. The same rigor is often missing when quoting percentiles and tolerance or percentile intervals. This article derives the expression for confidence in percentiles of a sample…

In the future, AI will increasingly find its way into systems that can potentially cause physical harm to humans. For such safety-critical systems, it must be demonstrated that their residual risk does not exceed what is acceptable. This…

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the…

We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…

To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal…

A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…

We address the statistical estimation of composite functionals which may be nonlinear in the probability measure. Our study is motivated by the need to estimate coherent measures of risk, which become increasingly popular in finance,…

Confidence intervals are an established means of portraying uncertainty about an inferred parameter and can be generated through the use of confidence distributions. For a confidence distribution to be ideal, it must maintain frequentist…