相关论文: Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on n…
Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
Intuitively, sampling is likely to be more efficient for prevalence estimation, if the cases (or positives) have a relatively higher representation in the sample than in the population. In case the virus is transmitted via personal…
Epidemics on complex networks is a widely investigated topic in the last few years, mainly due to the last pandemic events. Usually, real contact networks are dynamic, hence much effort has been invested in studying epidemics on evolving…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
By convention, and even more often, as an unintentional consequence of design, time distributions of latency and infectious durations in stochastic epidemic simulations are often exponential. The skewed distribtion typically leads to…
The spread of new ideas, behaviors or technologies has been extensively studied using epidemic models. Here we consider a model of diffusion where the individuals' behavior is the result of a strategic choice. We study a simple coordination…
Pathogen introduction in plant communities can cause serious impact and biodiversity losses that may take long time to manage and restore. Effective control of epidemic spreading in the wild is a problem of paramount importance, because of…
We investigate the full temporal evolution of epidemic outbreaks in complex networks, focusing on the susceptible-infected (SI) model of disease transmission. Combining theoretical analysis with large-scale numerical simulations, we uncover…
Much effort has been devoted to understand how temporal network features and the choice of the source node affect the prevalence of a diffusion process. In this work, we addressed the further question: node pairs with what kind of local and…
The paper presents sufficient conditions of predictability for continuous time processes in deterministic setting. We found that processes with exponential decay on energy for higher frequencies are predictable in some weak sense on some…
The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of the…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…