相关论文: Respondent-driven sampling and an unusual epidemic
We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…
In this paper, we use a series of small world networks to simulate the epidemic spreading in the real world. To make our model more similar to the real world, we employ a parameter $p_{move}$ to denote its moving probability, which…
A new method based on the rejection sampling for finding statistical tests is proposed. This method is conceptually intuitive, easy to implement, and applicable for arbitrary dimension. To illustrate its potential applicability, three…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast amount of growth for statistical models and methods which characterize features of disease outbreaks. One class of models that came to light in this regard has been the use of self-exciting point…
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
Metapopulation models have been a powerful tool for both theorizing and simulating epidemic dynamics. In a metapopulation model, one considers a network composed of subpopulations and their pairwise connections, and individuals are assumed…
Consider a fully connected network of nodes, some of which have a piece of data to be disseminated to the whole network. We analyze the following push-type epidemic algorithm: in each push round, every node that has the data, i.e., every…
We derive an analytical expression for the critical infection rate r_c of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) disease spreading model on random networks. To obtain r_c, we first calculate the probability of reinfection, pi, defined…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
Rejection sampling is a popular method used to generate numbers that follow some given distribution. We study the use of this method to generate random numbers in the unit interval from increasing probability density functions. We focus on…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
We describe the DISC (Different Individuals, Same Clusters) design, a sampling scheme that can improve the precision of difference-in-differences (DID) estimators in settings involving repeated sampling of a population at multiple time…
We test the existence of a neighborhood based peer effect around participation in an incentive based conservation program called `Water Smart Landscapes' (WSL) in the city of Las Vegas, Nevada. We use 15 years of geo-coded daily records of…
The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…