相关论文: Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia

The data for the Ebola outbreak that occurred in 2014-2016 in three countries of West Africa are analysed within a common framework. The analysis is made using the results of an agent based Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model on a…

We study a resource allocation problem for containing an infectious disease in a metapopulation subject to resource uncertainty. We propose a two-stage model where the policy maker seeks to allocate resources in both stages where the second…

Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…

The 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. We developed spatial transmission models…

We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…

Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…

We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…

The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades. Here we find…

The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can persist in some body fluids after clinical recovery. In Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, there are well-documented cases of EVD reemergence that were associated with previous outbreaks. In…

A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak…

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…

Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics…

Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Operationally, health workers and surveillance teams treated cases, collected genetic samples, and tracked case…

Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…

Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases…

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies…

2014 Ebola outbreaks can offer lessons for the COVOID-19 and the ongoing variant surveillance and the use of multi method approach to detect public health preparedness. We are increasingly seeing a delay and disconnect of the transmission…

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that currently requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in the United…

As of October 12, 2018, 211 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict…