相关论文: Forecasting the 2013--2014 Influenza Season using …

Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…

Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) poses significant threats to the poultry industry, humans, domestic animals, and wildlife health worldwide. Monitoring this infectious disease is important for rapid and effective response to potential outbreaks.…

Background: There is limited information on the volume of influenza-associated mortality in Russia. Methods: Using previously developed methodology (Goldstein et al., Epidemiology 2012), we regressed the monthly rates of mortality for…

In today's world,the risk of emerging and re-emerging epidemics have increased.The recent advancement in healthcare technology has made it possible to predict an epidemic outbreak in a region.Early prediction of an epidemic outbreak greatly…

Big data collected from the Internet possess great potential to reveal the ever-changing trends in society. In particular, accurate infectious disease tracking with Internet data has grown in popularity, providing invaluable information for…

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the…

Infectious diseases cause more than 13 million deaths a year, worldwide. Globalization, urbanization, climate change, and ecological pressures have significantly increased the risk of a global pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-the…

Downsizing the US public health workforce throughout 2025 amplifies potential risks during public health crises. Expert judgment from public health officials represents a vital information source, distinct from traditional surveillance…

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…

In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not…

Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…

Individuals in low socioeconomic brackets are considered at-risk for developing influenza-related complications and often exhibit higher than average influenza-related hospitalization rates. This disparity has been attributed to various…

Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…

As the COVID-19 ravaging through the globe, accurate forecasts of the disease spread is crucial for situational awareness, resource allocation, and public health decision-making. Alternative to the traditional disease surveillance data…

Parameter inference and state estimation in stochastic and partially observed biological systems remain major problems in mathematical biology. In this work, we introduce a two-dimensional lattice graph model for the spread of infectious…

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…

Many uncontrollable disease outbreaks of the past exposed several vulnerabilities in the healthcare systems worldwide. While advancements in technology assisted in the rapid creation of the vaccinations, there needs to be a pressing focus…

Timely and robust influenza incidence forecasting is critical for public health decision-making. This paper presents MAESTRO (Multi-modal Adaptive Estimation for Temporal Respiratory Disease Outbreak), a novel, unified framework that…