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We introduce a score-filter-enhanced data assimilation framework designed to reduce predictive uncertainty in machine learning (ML) models for data-driven dynamical system forecasting. Machine learning serves as an efficient numerical model…

动力系统 · 数学 2026-03-17 Jingqiao Tang , Ryan Bausback , Feng Bao , Guannan Zhang , Phuoc-Toan Huynh

The Kalman filter is a fundamental tool for state estimation in dynamical systems. While originally developed for linear Gaussian settings, it has been extended to nonlinear problems through approaches such as the extended and unscented…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-09-10 Yuan Wu , Sicheng He

This paper extends the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems to identify trending model coefficients. This is done by repeatedly inflating the ensemble while maintaining the mean of the particles. As a benchmark serves a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-01-30 M. Schwenzer , G. Visconti , M. Ay , T. Bergs , M. Herty , D. Abel

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EnKI) and Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) are popular sampling methods for obtaining a target posterior distribution. They can be seem as one step (the analysis step) in the data assimilation method Ensemble…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-03-07 Zhiyan Ding , Qin Li , Jianfeng Lu

Data assimilation (DA) improves prediction of chaotic systems by combining model forecasts with sparse, noisy observations. Many DA methods are inherently probabilistic, but accurate probabilistic DA is often computationally expensive…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2026-04-24 Aditya Sai Pranith Ayapilla , Kazuya Miyashita , Yuki Yasuda , Ryo Onishi

Data-driven models of dynamical systems require extensive amounts of training data. For many practical applications, gathering sufficient data is not feasible due to cost or safety concerns. This work uses the Subset Extended Kalman Filter…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-04 Joshua E. Hammond , Tyler A. Soderstrom , Brian A. Korgel , Michael Baldea

We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time evolution by…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-01-23 San Gultekin , John Paisley

A Kalman filter based sequential estimator is presented in the present work. The estimator is integrated in the structure of segregated solvers for the analysis of incompressible flows. This technique provides an augmented flow state…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2017-02-22 Marcello Meldi , Alexandre Poux

Prediction of spatio-temporal chaotic systems is important in various fields, such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). While data assimilation methods have been applied in NWP, machine learning techniques, such as Reservoir Computing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-26 Futo Tomizawa , Yohei Sawada

The Kalman filter (KF) is one of the most widely used tools for data assimilation and sequential estimation. In this work, we show that the state estimates from the KF in a standard linear dynamical system setting are equivalent to those…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-04 Maria Jahja , David C. Farrow , Roni Rosenfeld , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The sample covariance matrix of a random vector is a good estimate of the true covariance matrix if the sample size is much larger than the length of the vector. In high-dimensional problems, this condition is never met. As a result, in…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2024-11-12 Michael Tsyrulnikov , Arseniy Sotskiy

Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-10 Andrea Nóvoa , Alberto Racca , Luca Magri

An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-07-08 Marcin Chrust , Anthony T. Weaver , Philip Browne , Hao Zuo , Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-02-24 Tadeo Javier Cocucci , Manuel Pulido , Magdalena Lucini , Pierre Tandeo

This study presents a novel approach to applying data assimilation techniques for particle-based simulations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. While data assimilation methods have been effectively applied to Eulerian simulations, their…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-12-10 Marius Duvillard , Loïc Giraldi , Olivier Le Maître

In spite of astonishing advances and developments in remote sensing technologies, meeting the spatio-temporal requirements for flood hydrodynamic modeling remains a great challenge for Earth Observation. The assimilation of multi-source…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-09-09 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Sophie Ricci , Andrea Piacentini , Charlotte Emery , Raquel Rodriguez Suquet , Santiago Peña Luque

Natural disasters, such as hurricanes and typhoons, pose significant challenges to public safety and infrastructure. While government agencies rely on multi million dollar UAV systems for storm data collection and disaster response, smaller…

动力系统 · 数学 2025-09-17 Ahmed A. Elgohary , Benjamin Gwinnell , Josh Augustine

Data assimilation techniques are crucial for accurately tracking complex dynamical systems by integrating observational data with numerical forecasts. Recently, score-based data assimilation methods emerged as powerful tools for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Pengpeng Xiao , Phillip Si , Peng Chen

We consider the problem of data-assisted forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems when the available data is in the form of noisy partial measurements of the past and present state of the dynamical system. Recently there have been several…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-02 Alexander Wikner , Jaideep Pathak , Brian R. Hunt , Istvan Szunyogh , Michelle Girvan , Edward Ott

We propose an ensemble score filter (EnSF) for solving high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems with superior accuracy. A major drawback of existing filtering methods, e.g., particle filters or ensemble Kalman filters, is the low…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-14 Feng Bao , Zezhong Zhang , Guannan Zhang