相关论文: Another Look at Confidence Intervals: Proposal for…

Diffusion models have become the go-to method for many generative tasks, particularly for image-to-image generation tasks such as super-resolution and inpainting. Current diffusion-based methods do not provide statistical guarantees…

Discourse signals are often implicit, leaving it up to the interpreter to draw the required inferences. At the same time, discourse is embedded in a social context, meaning that interpreters apply their own assumptions and beliefs when…

Many methods are available for assessing the importance of omitted variables in linear regression. These methods typically make different, non-falsifiable assumptions. Hence the data alone cannot tell us which method is most appropriate.…

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Confidence interval of mean is often used when quoting statistics. The same rigor is often missing when quoting percentiles and tolerance or percentile intervals. This article derives the expression for confidence in percentiles of a sample…

This paper explores the effects of simulated moments on the performance of inference methods based on moment inequalities. Commonly used confidence sets for parameters are level sets of criterion functions whose boundary points may depend…

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…

Introductory texts on statistics typically only cover the classical "two sigma" confidence interval for the mean value and do not describe methods to obtain confidence intervals for other estimators. The present technical report fills this…

The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented. Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the…

Adaptive confidence intervals for regression functions are constructed under shape constraints of monotonicity and convexity. A natural benchmark is established for the minimum expected length of confidence intervals at a given function in…

Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…

We provide the asymptotic distribution of the major indexes used in the statistical literature to quantify disparate treatment in machine learning. We aim at promoting the use of confidence intervals when testing the so-called group…

Uncertainty may be taken to characterize inferences, their conclusions, their premises or all three. Under some treatments of uncertainty, the inferences itself is never characterized by uncertainty. We explore both the significance of…

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Reliable inference requires that artificial intelligence (AI) models provide trustworthy uncertainty estimates, not merely accurate predictions. Recent advances in Bayesian learning have made significant progress toward this goal, and…

Faithful explanations are essential for machine learning models in high-stakes applications. Inherently interpretable models are well-suited for these applications because they naturally provide faithful explanations by revealing their…

An important factor to guarantee a fair use of data-driven recommendation systems is that we should be able to communicate their uncertainty to decision makers. This can be accomplished by constructing prediction intervals, which provide an…

Interpretation methods to reveal the internal reasoning processes behind machine learning models have attracted increasing attention in recent years. To quantify the extent to which the identified interpretations truly reflect the intrinsic…

Interpretability is often pointed out as a key requirement for trustworthy machine learning. However, learning and releasing models that are inherently interpretable leaks information regarding the underlying training data. As such…