相关论文: A time-varying shared frailty model with applicati…

This chapter introduces evolutionary antifragility as the time-scale interaction characteristics of a natural dynamic system. It describes the benefit derived from input distribution unevenness, based on the emergent system dynamics and its…

We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the herd immunity threshold for discrete-time SIR compartmental models with a static network structure. We find unexpectedly that these models violate classical intuition which holds that the…

Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…

Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…

Existing approaches to modelling antibody concentration data are mostly based on finite mixture models that rely on the assumption that individuals can be divided into two distinct groups: seronegative and seropositive. Here, we challenge…

In many epidemiological models a nonlinear transmission function is used in the form of power law relationship. It is constantly argued that such form reflects population heterogeneities including differences in the mixing pattern,…

We propose a statistical model for weighted temporal networks capable of measuring the level of heterogeneity in a financial system. Our model focuses on the level of diversification of financial institutions; that is, whether they are more…

In most social and information systems the activity of agents generates rapidly evolving time-varying networks. The temporal variation in networks' connectivity patterns and the ongoing dynamic processes are usually coupled in ways that…

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent $A$ exhibit a…

Threshold models try to explain the consequences of social influence like the spread of fads and opinions. Along with models of epidemics, they constitute a major theoretical framework of social spreading processes. In threshold models on…

Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…

Short-time human travel behaviour can be described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two…

The UK Biobank is a large-scale health resource comprising genetic, environmental and medical information on approximately 500,000 volunteer participants in the UK, recruited at ages 40--69 during the years 2006--2010. The project monitors…

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

This paper studies a discrete-time time-varying multi-layer networked SIWS (susceptible-infected-water-susceptible) model with multiple resources under both single-virus and competing multi-virus settings. Besides the human-to-human…

Frailty survival models are widely used to capture unobserved heterogeneity among individuals in clinical and epidemiological research. This paper introduces a Bayesian survival model that features discrete frailty induced by the hurdle…

We study the susceptible-infected model with power-law waiting time distributions $P(\tau)\sim \tau^{-\alpha}$, as a model of spreading dynamics under heterogeneous human activity patterns. We found that the average number of new infections…