相关论文: A simple hierarchical Bayesian model for simultane…

High performance machine learning models have become highly dependent on the availability of large quantity and quality of training data. To achieve this, various central agencies such as the government have suggested for different data…

Gaussian Graphical Models provide a convenient framework for representing dependencies between variables. Recently, this tool has received a high interest for the discovery of biological networks. The literature focuses on the case where a…

We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is…

Deception is a technique to mislead human or computer systems by manipulating beliefs and information. Successful deception is characterized by the information-asymmetric, dynamic, and strategic behaviors of the deceiver and the deceivee.…

Poker is a challenging problem for artificial intelligence, with non-deterministic dynamics, partial observability, and the added difficulty of unknown adversaries. Modelling all of the uncertainties in this domain is not an easy task. In…

While many multiple graph inference methodologies operate under the implicit assumption that an explicit vertex correspondence is known across the vertex sets of the graphs, in practice these correspondences may only be partially or…

Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular over the last few decades as a tool for reasoning under uncertainty in fields as diverse as medicine, biology, epidemiology, economics and the social sciences. This is especially true…

We develop a statistical framework to evaluate evidence of alleged cheating involving illegal signaling in sports from a forensic perspective. We explain why, instead of a frequentist procedure, a Bayesian approach is called for. We apply…

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Social learning algorithms provide models for the formation of opinions over social networks resulting from local reasoning and peer-to-peer exchanges. Interactions occur over an underlying graph topology, which describes the flow of…

We study linear-quadratic games of incomplete information with Gaussian uncertainty, where each player's payoff depends on a privately observed type and a common state. The designer observes the state, elicits types, and sells action…

Volleyball is a team sport with unique and specific characteristics. We introduce a new two level-hierarchical Bayesian model which accounts for theses volleyball specific characteristics. In the first level, we model the set outcome with a…

We propose a sampling algorithm to perform system identification from a set of input-output graph signal pairs. The dynamics of the systems we study are given by a partially known adjacency matrix and a generic parametric graph filter of…

We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model…

In statistical inference, uncertainty is unknown and all models are wrong. That is to say, a person who makes a statistical model and a prior distribution is simultaneously aware that both are fictional candidates. To study such cases,…

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Predicting missing links between entities in a knowledge graph is a fundamental task to deal with the incompleteness of data on the Web. Knowledge graph embeddings map nodes into a vector space to predict new links, scoring them according…

The authors give an approximation method for Bayesian inference in arena model, which is focused on paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The approximation method simplifies the inference by reducing parameters and…

Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in the recent years and different types of models have been proposed to achieve a variety of objectives: from identifying the key characteristics which lead a team to win…

In bipartite matching problems, agents on two sides of a graph want to be paired according to their preferences. The stability of a matching depends on these preferences, which in uncertain environments also reflect agents' beliefs about…