相关论文: A simple hierarchical Bayesian model for simultane…

We consider the problem of purchasing data for machine learning or statistical estimation. The data analyst has a budget to purchase datasets from multiple data providers. She does not have any test data that can be used to evaluate the…

Although existing machine learning-based methods for traffic accident analysis can provide good quality results to downstream tasks, they lack interpretability which is crucial for this critical problem. This paper proposes an interpretable…

We propose a stochastic model of opinion exchange in networks. A finite set of agents is organized in a fixed network structure. There is a binary state of the world and each agent receives a private signal on the state. We model beliefs as…

We consider a gossip approach for finding a Nash equilibrium in a distributed multi-player network game. We extend previous results on Nash equilibrium seeking to the case when the players' cost functions may be affected by the actions of…

Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a widely applicable class of probabilistic graphical model that can represent context-specific independence statements and asymmetric unfoldings of events in an easily interpretable way. Existing model…

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

An analyst observes the frequency with which an agent takes actions, but not the frequency with which she takes actions conditional on a payoff relevant state. In this setting, we ask when the analyst can rationalize the agent's choices as…

This paper considers a distributed gossip approach for finding a Nash equilibrium in networked games on graphs. In such games a player's cost function may be affected by the actions of any subset of players. An interference graph is…

Traditional economic models typically treat private information, or signals, as generated from some underlying state. Recent work has explicated alternative models, where signals correspond to interpretations of available information. We…

We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups,…

An algorithm for automated construction of a sparse Bayesian network given an unstructured probabilistic model and causal domain information from an expert has been developed and implemented. The goal is to obtain a network that explicitly…

The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…

Robust analysis of coauthorship networks is based on high quality data. However, ground-truth data are usually unavailable. Empirical data suffer several types of errors, a typical one of which is called merging error, identifying different…

Bookmakers' odds consistently provide one of the most accurate methods for predicting the results of professional tennis matches. However, these odds usually only become available shortly before a match takes place, limiting their…

Imitation is a basic updating mechanism for strategy evolution in structured populations, determining how individuals sample social information and translate it into behavioral changes. Higher-order networks, such as hypergraphs, generalize…

We consider data with multiple observations or reports on a network in the case when these networks themselves are connected through some form of network ties. We could take the example of a cognitive social structure where there is another…

We study minimal single-task peer prediction mechanisms that have limited knowledge about agents' beliefs. Without knowing what agents' beliefs are or eliciting additional information, it is not possible to design a truthful mechanism in a…

In an earlier paper the first two authors have shown that self-complementary graphs can always be oriented in such a way that the union of the oriented version and its isomorphically oriented complement gives a transitive tournament. We…

The classical, complete-information two-player games assume that the problem data (in particular the payoff matrix) is known exactly by both players. In a now famous result, Nash has shown that any such game has an equilibrium in mixed…

A 3-tournament is a complete 3-uniform hypergraph where each edge has a special vertex designated as its tail. A vertex set $X$ dominates $T$ if every vertex not in $X$ is contained in an edge whose tail is in $X$. The domination number of…