相关论文: Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Ran…

Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noel Forgeard and Levi Strauss' CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and…

If managers assume a normal or near-normal distribution of Information Technology (IT) project cost overruns, as is common, and cost overruns can be shown to follow a power-law distribution, managers may be unwittingly exposing their…

In this research, we investigate the impact of delegating decision making to information technology (IT) on an important human decision bias - the sunk cost effect. To address our research question, we use a unique and very rich dataset…

What do binary (or probabilistic) forecasting abilities have to do with overall performance? We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and "beliefs" (expressed as a specific "event" will happen/will not happen) and…

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue…

We study decision-making with rational inattention in settings where agents have perception constraints. In such settings, inaccurate prior beliefs or models of others may lead to inattention blindness, where an agent is unaware of its…

This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the…

Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that…

According to a study of The Standish Group International, 44% of software projects cost more and last longer than expected. More accurate the effort estimation is; the better the enterprise gets organized and the more the software project…

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing…

Participatory budgeting, as a paradigm for democratic innovations, engages citizens in the distribution of a public budget to projects, which they propose and vote for implementation. So far, voting algorithms have been proposed and studied…

We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker…

Individual-level state-transition microsimulations (iSTMs) have proliferated for economic evaluations in place of cohort state transition models (cSTMs). Probabilistic economic evaluations quantify decision uncertainty and value of…

Data-driven design is a proven success factor that more and more digital businesses embrace. At the same time, academics and practitioners alike warn that when virtually everything must be tested and proven with numbers, that can stifle…

Accurate software cost and schedule estimation are essential for software project success. Often it referred to as the "black art" because of its complexity and uncertainty, software estimation is not as difficult or puzzling as people…

Persistent cost and schedule overruns in U.S. building projects expose limitations of conventional, document-based estimating and deterministic Critical Path Method (CPM) scheduling, which remain inflexible under uncertainty and lag dynamic…

Output from generative AI such as ChatGPT, can be repetitive and biased. But more worrying is that this output can mysteriously tip mid-response from good (correct) to bad (misleading or wrong) without the user noticing. In 2024 alone, this…

This study aims to assist Company leaders and management team in providing more accurate time and cost estimations for future software projects. This paper focuses on analyzing the relationship between project complexity and cost and time…

This research explores how human-defined goals influence the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) through purpose-conditioned cognition. Using financial prediction tasks, we show that revealing the downstream use (e.g., predicting stock…

How do algorithmic decision aids introduced in business decision processes affect task performance? In a first experiment, we study effective collaboration. Faced with a decision, subjects alone have a success rate of 72%; Aided by a…