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Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li

Real-World Data (RWD), with its large sample sizes and rich clinical detail, offers a compelling alternative to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for studying treatment effects in diverse and complex patient populations. However, its…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-26 Yifei Xu , Hwiyoung Lee , Zhenyao Ye , Yezhi Pan , Jingsong Zhou , Yun Yang , Chixiang Chen , Shuo Chen

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Drago Plecko , Patrik Okanovic , Torsten Hoefler , Elias Bareinboim

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to adjust for the bias in estimating treatment effects caused by unmeasured confounders in observational studies. In this manuscript, we provide empirical and theoretical evidence that the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-04 Ashkan Ertefaie , Dylan Small , James H. Flory , Sean Hennessy

NOTE: This preprint has a flawed theoretical formulation. Please avoid it and refer to the ICLR22 publication https://openreview.net/forum?id=q7n2RngwOM. Also, arXiv:2109.15062 contains some new ideas on unobserved Confounding. As an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

Identifying effects of actions (treatments) on outcome variables from observational data and causal assumptions is a fundamental problem in causal inference. This identification is made difficult by the presence of confounders which can be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-03-19 Ilya Shpitser , Tyler VanderWeele , James M. Robins

Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference from observational studies. Recently, several authors suggest that this problem may be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-25 Dehan Kong , Shu Yang , Linbo Wang

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

A central challenge in any study of the effects of beliefs on outcomes, such as decisions and behavior, is the risk of omitted variables bias. Omitted variables, frequently unmeasured or even unknown, can induce correlations between beliefs…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-05 Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan , Micha Mandel , Yosef Rinott

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Yue Zhang , Feng Xie , Yangbo He

The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

Clinical trials traditionally employ blinding as a design mechanism to reduce the influence of placebo effects. In practice, however, it can be difficult or impossible to blind study participants and unblinded trials are common in medical…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-06-22 Elias Chaibub Neto

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) provide opportunities to study effects of longitudinal treatment strategies in real-world clinical settings. A challenge presented by EHR data is that frequency of covariate…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Leah Pirondini , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Edward Palmer , Ruth H. Keogh