相关论文: Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Mo…

Aims. We aim at creating a Bayesian model to infer the coefficients of PL or PLZ relations that propagates uncertainties in the observables in a rigorous and well founded way. Methods. We propose a directed acyclic graph to encode the…

Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN,…

Child mortality is an important population health indicator. However, many countries lack high-quality vital registration to measure child mortality rates precisely and reliably over time. Research endeavors such as those by the United…

The paper addresses joint sparsity selection in the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix for high-dimensional multivariate regression models in the Bayesian paradigm. The selected sparsity…

Hierarchical forecasting problems arise when time series have a natural group structure, and predictions at multiple levels of aggregation and disaggregation across the groups are needed. In such problems, it is often desired to satisfy the…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…

Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the…

Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models handle geographical dependence through a spatially varying coefficient model and have been widely used in applied science, but its general Bayesian extension is unclear because it involves a…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Maize, a crucial crop globally cultivated across vast regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, occupies 197 million hectares as of 2021. Various statistical and machine learning models, including mixed-effect…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

Full conformal prediction is a framework that implicitly formulates distribution-free confidence prediction regions for a wide range of estimators. However, a classical limitation of the full conformal framework is the computation of the…

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

Sequences of labeled events observed at irregular intervals in continuous time are ubiquitous across various fields. Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) provide a mathematical framework for modeling these sequences, enabling inferences such as…

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure…

Aggregated stochastic characteristics of geographically distributed wind generation will provide valuable information for secured and economical system operation in electricity markets. This paper focuses on the uncertainty set prediction…