相关论文: Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Mo…

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

We introduce a comprehensive Bayesian multivariate predictive inference framework. The basis for our framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model, that is a mixture of finite Polya trees corresponding to multiple dyadic partitions of the unit…

Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting…

Modeling species abundance patterns using local environmental features is an important, current problem in ecology. The Cape Floristic Region (CFR) in South Africa is a global hot spot of diversity and endemism, and provides a rich class of…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Forecasting models that are trained across sets of many time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), have shown recently promising results in forecasting competitions and real-world applications, outperforming many…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

The pattern maximum likelihood (PML) estimate, introduced by Orlitsky et al., is an estimate of the multiset of probabilities in an unknown probability distribution $\mathbf{p}$, the estimate being obtained from $n$ i.i.d. samples drawn…

Demographic shifts, influenced by globalization, economic conditions, geopolitical events, and environmental factors, pose significant challenges for policymakers and researchers. Accurate demographic forecasting is essential for informed…

Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Some real-world decision-making problems require making probabilistic forecasts over multiple steps at once. However, methods for probabilistic forecasting may fail to capture correlations in the underlying time-series that exist over long…

A common problem in Machine Learning and statistics consists in detecting whether the current sample in a stream of data belongs to the same distribution as previous ones, is an isolated outlier or inaugurates a new distribution of data. We…