相关论文: Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Mo…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

The Fr\'echet regression is a useful method for modeling random objects in a general metric space given Euclidean covariates. However, the conventional approach could be sensitive to outlying objects in the sense that the distance from the…

Every observation may follow a distribution that is randomly selected in a class of distributions. It is called the distribution uncertainty. This is a fact acknowledged in some research fields such as financial risk measure. Thus, the…

A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…

We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of…

In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…

Parton distribution functions (PDFs) form an essential part of particle physics calculations. Currently, the most precise predictions for these non-perturbative functions are generated through fits to global data. A problem that several PDF…

Monitoring family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), is essential for family planning programming. The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) uses survey data to estimate and forecast family planning…

We introduce a probabilistic (Bayesian) framework and associated software toolbox for mapping population receptive fields (pRFs) based on fMRI data. This generic approach is intended to work with stimuli of any dimension and is demonstrated…

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend…

Fairness in machine learning has attracted increasing attention in recent years. The fairness methods improving algorithmic fairness for in-distribution data may not perform well under distribution shifts. In this paper, we first…

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

Retrospectively ascertained survival time may be subject to recall error. An example of discrete survival time with such recall error is time-to-pregnancy (TTP), the number of months non-contracepting couples require to get pregnant which…

The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…