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A common tool in the practice of Markov Chain Monte Carlo is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the desired kernel is slow to evaluate or intractable. A limited set of quantitative tools exist to assess the…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-14 Jeffrey Negrea , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

A delayed-acceptance version of a Metropolis--Hastings algorithm can be useful for Bayesian inference when it is computationally expensive to calculate the true posterior, but a computationally cheap approximation is available; the…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-11-12 Chris Sherlock , Anthony Lee

We introduce a new property of Markov chains, called variance bounding. We prove that, for reversible chains at least, variance bounding is weaker than, but closely related to, geometric ergodicity. Furthermore, variance bounding is…

概率论 · 数学 2008-12-18 Gareth O. Roberts , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-07-15 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) lies at the core of modern Bayesian methodology, much of which would be impossible without it. Thus, the convergence properties of MCMCs have received significant attention, and in particular, proving…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-08-28 Bala Rajaratnam , Doug Sparks

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

We study the convergence properties of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian vector autoregressions with predictors, or exogenous variables. The Markov chain generated by our algorithm is shown to be geometrically ergodic regardless of…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-10-05 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions,…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-18 Qian Qin

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms to sample complex and high-dimensional probability distributions. The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the workhorse of MCMC, provides a simple recipe to construct reversible…

Convergence rate analyses of random walk Metropolis-Hastings Markov chains on general state spaces have largely focused on establishing sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity or on analysis of mixing times. Geometric ergodicity is a…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-07-24 Riddhiman Bhattacharya , Galin L. Jones

We introduce a new geometric approach that constructs a transition kernel of Markov chain. Our method always minimizes the average rejection rate and even reduce it to zero in many relevant cases, which cannot be achieved by conventional…

统计力学 · 物理学 2012-07-03 Hidemaro Suwa , Synge Todo

We study convergence properties of pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (Andrieu and Roberts [Ann. Statist. 37 (2009) 697-725]). We find that the asymptotic variance of the pseudo-marginal algorithm is always at least as…

概率论 · 数学 2015-03-31 Christophe Andrieu , Matti Vihola

We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential…

概率论 · 数学 2015-04-15 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Matti Vihola

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-06-01 Yun Yang , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-05-20 Tim Salimans , Diederik P. Kingma , Max Welling

We consider a pseudo-marginal Metropolis--Hastings kernel $P_m$ that is constructed using an average of $m$ exchangeable random variables, as well as an analogous kernel $P_s$ that averages $s<m$ of these same random variables. Using an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-11-01 Chris Sherlock , Alexandre Thiery , Anthony Lee

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie
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