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This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions,…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-18 Qian Qin

Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-02-18 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Elisabeth Leoff , Jörn Sass

We provide explicit nonasymptotic estimates for the rate of convergence of empirical means of Markov chains, together with a Gaussian or exponential control on the deviations of empirical means. These estimates hold under a "positive…

概率论 · 数学 2010-11-11 Aldéric Joulin , Yann Ollivier

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-02-18 Yudong Feng , Ashis Gangopadhyay

The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…

应用统计 · 统计学 2007-08-14 K. Balaji Rao

Pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from intractable distributions have gained recent interest and have been theoretically studied in considerable depth. Their main appeal is that they are exact, in the sense that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-25 Felipe J. Medina-Aguayo , Anthony Lee , Gareth O. Roberts

We study ergodic properties of nonlinear Markov chains and stochastic McKean-Vlasov equations. For nonlinear Markov chains we obtain sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure and uniform ergodicity. We also…

概率论 · 数学 2013-11-26 Oleg Butkovsky

Ergodicity is a fundamental issue for a stochastic process. In this paper, we refine results on ergodicity for a general type of Markov chain to a specific type or the $GI/G/1$-type Markov chain, which has many interesting and important…

概率论 · 数学 2012-08-28 YongHua Mao , Yongming Tai , Yiqiang Q. Zhao , Jiezhong Zou

The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-01-07 Synge Todo , Hidemaro Suwa

This paper provides sufficient conditions over the sequence of samples and parameters of an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to ensure ergodicity with respect to a target distribution that can have unbounded support. These…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-17 Alexandre Chotard

We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-11-19 Sinan Yildirim , Sumeetpal Singh , Thomas Dean , Ajay Jasra

In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-11-11 Mika Meitz , Pentti Saikkonen

We provide explicit expressions for the constants involved in the characterisation of ergodicity of sub-geometric Markov chains. The constants are determined in terms of those appearing in the assumed drift and one-step minorisation…

概率论 · 数学 2014-03-18 Christophe Andrieu , Gersende Fort , Matti Vihola

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2014-08-06 Tetsuya Takaishi

In order to calculate the unobserved volatility in conditional heteroscedastic time series models, the natural recursive approximation is very often used. Following \cite{StraumannMikosch2006}, we will call the model \emph{invertible} if…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-12-18 Alexey Sorokin

We obtain a perfect sampling characterization of weak ergodicity for backward products of finite stochastic matrices, and equivalently, simultaneous tail triviality of the corresponding nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Applying these ideas to…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-01-07 Nick Whiteley , Anthony Lee

In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Philippe Soulier

We establish general conditions under which Markov chains produced by the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method will and will not be geometrically ergodic. We consider implementations with both position-independent and position-dependent…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-11-19 Samuel Livingstone , Michael Betancourt , Simon Byrne , Mark Girolami

This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-10-28 Yuta Kurose

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-07-16 Paul Doukhan , Michael H. Neumann , Lionel Truquet
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